Probably Boring, Possibly Interesting River Decision

[Drizztdj]

Against weak players overplaying their A2 definitely raise/cap the river with two pair on up.

I've seen many people push in NL/PL with nothing but a naked A2 low and no high.

[Stork]

Thanks, I over estimated how often he would have a straight, a set, or a better two pair here. I forgot that if he almost always had A2, he only had 2 cards to make a better high.

Btw, I assume the rest of the hand was played ok?

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
I forgot that if he almost always had A2, he only had 2 cards to make a better high.

[/ QUOTE ]

Stork - Good way to look at it.

I guess I didn't have to run that simulation.
If Villain has A2XY, then you're almost a four to one (actually 3.91 to 1) favorite to have a better high hand. I think that's about how the simulation turned out - but the calculation is better (purer).
Here's my math:
4*3/2+4*37+3+3+3+2+2=167
41*40/2= 820
820-167=653.
653/167=3.91

But yeah, if Villain has an ace and a deuce, then Villain only has two other cards. It's kind of similar to playing heads-up in limit Texas hold 'em and having two pair, queens and fours with the board reading 3-4-6-8-Q-non-suited.
Non-limit or pot-limit, you might be wary about betting, but limit, I think you generally would bet your two pairs, queens and fours, for value. Depends, I guess. But generally, I think, you bet it.

[ QUOTE ]
Btw, I assume the rest of the hand was played ok?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hard to say for sure, but I think so.

First betting round:
Your opponents who had not already folded seemed unfazed by your pre-flop raise. That kind of indicates to me that they're either fools or you usually enter the action with a pre-flop raise. If that's correct, then you certainly should raise before the flop with your very fine starting hand.

(Your starting hand is easily strong enough to make a pre-flop raise, but I don't think you should make pre-flop raises based solely on the strength of your starting hand).

What it boils down to, in my humble opinion, is if your opponents can't read your hand for what it is, then you should raise with such a fine starting hand. On the other hand, if you give your cards away by raising, especially when you usually limp, and if that will enable your opponents to play against you more effectively on the second, third, and/or fourth betting rounds, then I think you're better off limping. In this particular situation it's hard for me to tell for sure, but I don't think the pre-flop raise hurt you later in the hand and therefore it was fine.

Second betting round:
I have mixed feelings about your lack of a raise on the second betting round. On the one hand, by not betting you make reading you more difficult, and play on the third and fourth betting rounds correspondingly more difficult for your opponents - and the way things turned out, that line of play was probably best for you - and your back-up low did get counterfeited - and you also tend to suck in chasers by just calling. On the other hand, by raising after this flop, you increase your chances of scooping or getting 3/4, by possibly knocking out an opponent who might out-draw you for high. Bottom line: hard to say for sure, but I think your simple call on the second betting round was very effective.

Third betting round:
Finally, I do like your raise on the third betting round.

Buzz