River play (crossposted)

[jskills]

[ QUOTE ]
Check.

PPs aren't folding here, ever. The only hand that folds that you want to fold is another AK. You get a call from AQ and maybe AJ.

Based on the overcard possibilities alone, it's a very close bet, but when you figure PPs that call I don't think this is a good value bet.

-d

[/ QUOTE ]

Word.

[krimson]

I chose check. I think the only hand we're folding that we want to fold is AK. We might get a call from AQ and AJ, but I think we're also getting called down by hands like 99, 88, 77 or even a passively played JJ (based on your read) too often for it to be +ev to bet.

[SmileyEH]

I bet here. Even a passive player is going to throw a raise in with a hand like 99 here, especially by 15/30 standards.

-SmileyEH

[hobbsmann]

Since this guy is fairly passive postflop there is a chance he doesn't put in raise with 88/99 and possibly JJ.

If we put his range as 88,99,JJ and AJ-AK we are

winning 47% of the time
losing 35% of the time
chopping 18% of the time.

So the river question then comes down to how likely it is that he calls the river with each hand. I'd lean towards checking the river here because the benifit of folding another AK (and AJ-AQ) doesn't outweigh the times he calls with 88/99/JJ.

Tweaking his hand range slightly can turn this into a profitable call though. If for example he wouldn't play JJ this passively then you are winning 53% of the time on the river.

I still see this as a fairly marginal river bet, but would be more in favor of it if we could rule out 88 from his range.

[Hoi Polloi]

Check: The only value of a bet is getting AK to fold. You give another bet to all the hands you lose to and you don't make enough on calls from hands you beat to make up difference IMO.

[Derek in NYC]

I dont know 15/30 players, but this is a check if you believe Bob Ciaffone & Jim Brier. The only person calling a river bet has a pair, and no pair is folding.

[Argus]

To those hoping to fold AK:
9 combos of AK
6 combos JJ
6 combos 99
6 combos 88

For the EV of a bet to be 0 (assuming we can always safely fold to a check/raise) solve for x in:
x/27 * 3.4 + 18/27 * (-1) = 0.
x=5.3.
Villain has to fold AK 5.3/9 times, or 59% of the time. I'm not sure whether it happens that often. This villain must have an understanding of pot odds, and knew they weren't there if he had to hit to win, so you are depending on his thinking that you won't bet AK again on the river.

I stand by my check, but given that it doesn't take much to turn this into a bet (remove 88 from the range, or believe that villain will often fold AK) I agree that it is close. If villain's range extends to include raising 77 UTG+1 then you have to check, unless you think that AQ will often call you.

[callmedonnie]

I said bet. I know OP said he was fairly passive, but it also said he was decent player. I think given the action he obviously doesn't have a ten or an overpair. The only holdings that come to mind are KQ, AK, weaker Aces, and pocket eights and nines. This might be the classic time for a WSD rate.

[Luv2DriveTT]

I want to value bet that river so badly.....

but I don't.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[SmileyEH]

A player that raises 99 UTG will put a raise in on this board. The only hand that makes sense which we are behind is JJ, which will obviously call. The pot is big, getting AK to fold is a coup and there is some value in AQ calling.

-SmileyEH