Another Simple Question

[Hal 2000]

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The mission will definitely be accomplished regardless of the number he chooses. But if he chooses only one soldier he will definitely die.

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Any examples of a military mission that fits within these parameters??

[m1illion]

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Even Pair The Board would not have the temerity to give an answer like that.

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Your question is one of tactics. Neither morality nor ethics or philosophy enter the arena.

[The Dude]

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He should send himself

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This is one concept that bothered me about the movie Hart's War. The General is much more valuable to the military than a typical soldier, and it would be incredibly stupid to assume that because he is in charge, he must step up to take the death.

Taking that argument to its logical conclusion, the President should be required to do the same. And yet we have scores of secret service men who know that it is their job to give up their lives to protect the President. Obviously he is more valuable to the process than several soldiers. (It is impossible to define that value in terms of number of soldiers' lives, but the truth of that statement should be obvious to all.)

I think I would send the 2 soldiers. I wouldnt send 1 guy with a 98% chance, as that is basicly certain death. 75% might do it for 1 guy. Definitely not 10 with 30%. Im not risking over 7 soldiers with any significant percentage, I dont think that 3% for 100 does it either.

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These are his only choices.

[/ QUOTE ]He could choose not to be a general and thus not be faced with these sorts of problems.

[andyfox]

"This one isn't too farfetched. . . . if he chooses only one soldier he will definitely die. If he chooses two soldiers, there is a 60% chance that they will both die. Otherwise they both live. If he chooses ten soldiers, there is a 20% chance they will all die. Otherwise they will all live. If he chooses 100 soldiers, there is a 3% chance they will all die. Otherwise they will all live. If he doesn't do the mission, seven random soldiers will die."

Not too farfetched?

I agree with your point that not enough people do the math or know how to do the math. That the math comes into play as often as you seem to think it does, and that it can be figured as accurately as you think it can, is where I have a problem. That you suggest that the parameters you lay down here are not too farfetched, I offer as exhibit A. And yes, I read your discussion of non EV factors.

[chomsky53]

its impressive that you call a question "simple" and yet can't even see the problem it poses. yet another grotesque display not only of your willful ignorance but also of your transparent stupidity.

[KidPokerX]

I agree with Million - send 100. He is also correct in saying that in war, these philosophical dilemnas do not apply. The question you pose is strictly military strategies of war. The correct answer is clearly 100 people.

[Victor]

you need to take into account bankroll as well, i.e. how many soldiers you have.

[srm80]

The Chinese always attacked at their greatest strength, to ensure victory. The correct answer is 100 soldiers.