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#11
08-24-2005, 02:26 AM
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Re: 2 out bottom of the 9th intentional walk, tied game men on 1st & 2
[ QUOTE ]
also, "scoring position" is overrated, but j-po is such a bad runner it is significant. [/ QUOTE ] don't you mean less significant? If the runner were fast, the IBB would be slightly more justified. [ QUOTE ] walks being more common is a good point, especially since batista was having a control issue. however escalona is a hacker and rarely walks, but its still a good point. [/ QUOTE ] 5 BBs in 199 major league AB's - not good. But he walked a fair amount in the minors and likely would walk close to 10% of the time in this situation. The threat of the walk is almost as important as the walk itself. The pitcher is put in a really tough spot if he gets behind the hitter. 
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#12
08-24-2005, 02:56 AM
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Re: 2 out bottom of the 9th intentional walk, tied game men on 1st & 2
[ QUOTE ]
The threat of the walk is almost as important as the walk itself. The pitcher is put in a really tough spot if he gets behind the hitter. [/ QUOTE ] Exactly.
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#13
08-24-2005, 11:07 AM
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Re: 2 out bottom of the 9th intentional walk, tied game men on 1st & 2
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] also, "scoring position" is overrated, but j-po is such a bad runner it is significant. [/ QUOTE ] don't you mean less significant? If the runner were fast, the IBB would be slightly more justified. [ QUOTE ] walks being more common is a good point, especially since batista was having a control issue. however escalona is a hacker and rarely walks, but its still a good point. [/ QUOTE ] 5 BBs in 199 major league AB's - not good. But he walked a fair amount in the minors and likely would walk close to 10% of the time in this situation. The threat of the walk is almost as important as the walk itself. The pitcher is put in a really tough spot if he gets behind the hitter. [/ QUOTE ] i wrote that late last night, my post was awfully worded. youre right, i was just kind of adding to what you were saying. what i should have said was jorge posada was the lead runner, and is painfully slow. i was just pointing out that escalona doesnt walk much. i figured no one else would know the stats of a yankees backup player... but somehow i botched it. batistas control was awful in that inning.
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#14
08-24-2005, 11:26 AM
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Re: 2 out bottom of the 9th intentional walk, tied game men on 1st & 2
The walk was incredibly stupid, especially with Po-sada on second base. Basically, it's going to take a deep outfield hit for Jorge to be able to score from second. But if you move him up to third, then any base hit will score him. Derek Jeter does not usually hit the ball all that hard, so the smart play was pitching to Jeter and trying to get him out, rather than loading the bases, especially with a pitcher who had already walked two guys in the inning.
It would obviously be different if first base was open and then walking Jeter to face Escalona would be an OBVIOUS decision, but that wasn't the case.
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#15
08-24-2005, 11:52 AM
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Re: 2 out bottom of the 9th intentional walk, tied game men on 1st & 2
[ QUOTE ]
It would obviously be different if first base was open and then walking Jeter to face Escalona would be an OBVIOUS decision, but that wasn't the case. [/ QUOTE ] I assume you are referring to if the runners were on second and third rather than first and second. I don't think that would be an OBVIOUS decision at all, I would still rather pitch to Jeter with a base open than Joe Schmo with nowhere to put him.
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#16
08-24-2005, 12:18 PM
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Re: 2 out bottom of the 9th intentional walk, tied game men on 1st & 2
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] It would obviously be different if first base was open and then walking Jeter to face Escalona would be an OBVIOUS decision, but that wasn't the case. [/ QUOTE ] I assume you are referring to if the runners were on second and third rather than first and second. I don't think that would be an OBVIOUS decision at all, I would still rather pitch to Jeter with a base open than Joe Schmo with nowhere to put him. [/ QUOTE ] I think that 90% of managers with runners on second and third and Jeter at the plate would walk Jeter to face the inexperienced callup.
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#17
08-24-2005, 12:34 PM
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Re: 2 out bottom of the 9th intentional walk, tied game men on 1st & 2
if its a choice between 2nd and 3rd, jeter up, or bases loaded escalona up, its not close. if im pitching i want to face escalona.
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#18
08-24-2005, 01:02 PM
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Re: 2 out bottom of the 9th intentional walk, tied game men on 1st & 2nd
Especially with this pitcher, who had already walked two men unintentionally and was 2-0 on Jeter when they walked him intentionally.
So his control was shaky. Certainly the 0-2 pitch to Escalona caught too much of the plate.
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#19
08-24-2005, 01:07 PM
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Re: 2 out bottom of the 9th intentional walk, tied game men on 1st & 2
I agree. You've got a guy with 1,887 hits and a .314 lifetime average vs. a guy with 40 hits and a .201 lifetime average.
But in this case there were two outs. And a pitcher with shaky control. No way I move a guy to third base and load them up.
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#20
08-25-2005, 04:15 AM
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Re: 2 out bottom of the 9th intentional walk, tied game men on 1st & 2
I just read a book called why flip a coin. Basically about the science of good desicion making. There is a chapter on baseball that claims that stats prove walking a good hitter with a guy on 2nd a one out is -EV, as is sacrifice bunting with 0 outs and a guy on first. Not really the same situation but interesting enough that managers make desicions that goes against the statistics a lot of the time.
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