TPTK on flop, but then....

First, raise this PF. AJo doesn't like multiway pots so get less ppl in on the action. I'm thinking a PF raise would've solved all your problems.

Anyway, its likely that MP3 landed his straight and that CO played a pair (possibly TPWK) too aggresssively. You c/f this river and make sure to raise PF next time.

[ QUOTE ]
check/fold this turn with confidence.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, upon further inpsection, this is the wrong way to approach this turn.

First thing first: Hero's now got a backdoor straight draw to accompany his pair on flop, which is now only second best. He's now dealing with 10.5:1 odds to land that last Q to make the nut straight on the river.

While Hero is not getting pot odds to make a bet, his bet could likely create implied odds once he gets callers.

There's a couple of things that could happen here:

>Hero bets, all fold (7.25BB). You take down the pot, best scenario.

>Hero bets, all call (9.25BB). Second best, because you've now opened the door for implied odds to hit you on the river.

>Hero bets, MP3 raises. This is the best raise you can confront, because you have position on CO.
-If he folds (9.25BB), you fold because you're not getting implied odds with a 2-handed river.
-If he calls (10.25BB), you're now getting the right odds to make a second call (10.25:1 plus any money on the river he throws in).

>Hero bets, MP3 calls, CO raises (10.25BB). Interesting scenario, because Hero is getting great odds (10.25:1 plus the river), but there's no assurance that you get to the river 3-handed, which is what you want. Your lack of info comes from acting first after the raise, so you lay the hand down here.

Now, checking kills all of this. Your check:

a.) shows weakness, which makes opponents willing to bet into you
b.) kills your odds with a bet or a raise, because you're missing out on extra BBs that are put into the pot by your turn bet

All in all, you NEED to bet this turn. You've missing out on trememdous value by not doing so. C/fing the turn, as I suggested before, smacks of weakness and is -EV in the long run.

[Saint_D]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise preflop. 3bet the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes AK, but we are in the ML forum, we need to know why! Lets see if I understand.

Raise the flop: We have 2 cold callers and we are in mid position with an undominateable jack. This hand is best at making top pair, and has some connectedness. You have two callers who probably limped with worse hands. You would really love to be the button against these two guys. Raising here might very well get you the button. Your hand is strong enough that you don't mind a re-raise.

I think raising > folding > calling.

3 bet the flop You have a vulnerable TPTK. You don't want to give MP3 anything like good odds to draw. Face him with 2 cold now to get him out of the pot. You very well might be Capped by CO. More likely you will be back driving this hand.

CO has 4 possible reasons for his raise. He flopped a strait and is betting for value. He has Top Pair and is raising to protect his vulnerable hand. He has Mid or Bottom pair is and raising as a semi-bluff and to protect his hand. He has a 4 flush and is pumping it for value while he has a pot equity edge. His range of hands are AQo, any Jack and if he is really tricky, any two [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]s.

You are ahead but vulnerable in most situations. If you are behind the flopped strait, he will probably cap.

[aK13]

Value is the biggest reason for both.

AJ >>>> hands that people limp

3bet TP/TK since you are very likely to be ahead in this spot.

[DontRaisePlz]

I'm definitely favor of 3-betting this flop. Planning to donkbet and checking scare cards on the turn won't give you any advantages IMO.

[GTSamIAm]

Call and see what he plays this way.

[ QUOTE ]
Value is the biggest reason for both.

AJ >>>> hands that people limp

3bet TP/TK since you are very likely to be ahead in this spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is the stop and go not suitable here? Missing out on value?

[Saint_D]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Value is the biggest reason for both.

AJ >>>> hands that people limp

3bet TP/TK since you are very likely to be ahead in this spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is the stop and go not suitable here? Missing out on value?

[/ QUOTE ]

You aren't that far ahead. I don't think most of the stop and go plays people do are smart. More like Fancy Play Syndrom.

-D

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Value is the biggest reason for both.

AJ >>>> hands that people limp

3bet TP/TK since you are very likely to be ahead in this spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is the stop and go not suitable here? Missing out on value?

[/ QUOTE ]

You aren't that far ahead. I don't think most of the stop and go plays people do are smart. More like Fancy Play Syndrom.

-D

[/ QUOTE ]

Not that far ahead? TPTK and most callers are chasing draws?

-AC

[Saint_D]

[ QUOTE ]
TPTK and most callers are chasing draws?

-AC

[/ QUOTE ]

Even more reason to bet, no?

-D