Winning the minimum with AA

[bank]

I hate betting this turn and folding to a raise when you have 4 outs to split and could improve if he is raising 2 pair or a set. I like c/c'ing this turn and betting river (folding to raise assuming your read of him as weak passive). How many hands do you have on him?

[augie00]

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Folding sucks too.

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W
H
Y
?

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Because nobody ever makes reads and they simply assume that all turn raises are bluffs. Although if you muck every time you're raised on the turn you'll get run over, if you have a good read on someone and you're confident, muck away.

[aflaba]

A few hundred I think. Weak I assumed because he folded more % than most players on the flop and turn. He was something like 40/0 with 0.5-1.0 AF.

I didn't want to lose my 4-6 outs on the turn. But I din't look at the pot. I just assumed that I didn't want to lose my outs. But 5 outs are only worth 5/46*5 is "only" worth 0.6 BB.

By betting: I lose my 5 outs for 0.6 BB when I'm behind.

By betting: I win at most (7 outs) 0.8 BB compared to when he _checks behind_.

Will he check behind with a worse hand more than he will raise with a better? Or is it the other way around?

If he semi-raise bluffs sometimes that sucks. 1 time in 10 means that costs me almost 1/10*5 = 0.5 BB per played hand! (Or 5BB per time he semibluffraises)

I don't know the answers to any of these "questions". I'm just rambling.

On the river I wanted to bet, but will my opponent really not raise me with a worse hand more than once in the blue moon? Maybe he thinks that his two pairs of kings and queens are great and worth a raise? Mayebe he sees the other Q and feels that is the perfect bluffing card. Or maybe he is to passive for all of this?

[StellarWind]

Folding sucks.

Folding AA in this situation is an extreme position and requires very strong evidence. A generalization that Villain is weak and passive is completely inadequate justification.

Many tight/passive players have brains and definite ideas about different situations that arise during the game. His feelings about this type of four-straight board are unique to him and don't necessarily have anything to do with (e.g.) his PFR of 7% or his penchant for making weak folds with unimproved overcards. Unless you have seen him handle situations very similar to this you cannot predict how he is going to react.

If you want a concrete reason, the free showdown play is a weak-tight favorite. There actually is a fair case for calling a turn raise but folding the river if you fail to improve. You get your outs and quite possibly you get a free showdown when you are best. But normally I would call a raise down.

Interesting though it may be however, the fold to a raise question is a red herring. There is no doubt that Hero must bet this turn. You cannot give a free card with an overpair because you are ahead of so many hands compared to the number you are behind. You will not be raised that often. As a multitabling online player with other demands on your attention, the only correct course of action is to make the obvious bet and think about the raise if it happens. There is no reason to be sweating a problem that does not affect your current play.

[Danenania]

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Folding AA in this situation is an extreme position and requires very strong evidence.

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I think your disagreement with my position of folding stems from you defining weak passive differently than me and giving less confidence to the OP's read. If the player is capable of the moves that you think he's capable of, then I like calling down too. If he isn't capable of those moves then I like folding. We just extrapolated the OP's read in different directions, at least imo.

[StellarWind]

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I think your disagreement with my position of folding stems from you defining weak passive differently than me and giving less confidence to the OP's read. If the player is capable of the moves that you think he's capable of, then I like calling down too. If he isn't capable of those moves then I like folding. We just extrapolated the OP's read in different directions, at least imo.

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The difference IMO is that I attached less weight to the read. Maybe some day I'll play B&M and after sitting with someone all afternoon I'll truly know him. But online it is important to recognize that you don't know. Watching a few hands and looking at a half dozen stats gives you a general idea what a player is capable of, but rarely is it adequate to put a player on a specific range of hands or make definite statements about how he would handle some postflop situation.

I get enormous value out of my stats by using them to choose between reasonable alternatives. But I don't see any reasonable alternative to calling a turn raise. Folding AA is just too extreme. I don't feel I know any tight/passive that well. I assumed that if OP really knew this person well he might have provided a more expansive read.