99 on button on bubble

[beetyjoose]

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Certainly, the all in play has some merit and it's far superior to a smaller raise or a call, but for me, 99 is right on the borderline for this play. I muck 99 and jam with TT here.


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I agree. I thought about this exact point a lot while I was contemplating what to do. I know people tend to over value mid pp. i.e. people pushing with 33-77 without hesitating.

Often with a hand like 55, I'll ask myself would I push here with 67s? Most likely not. So I thought about laying this down the same way. On the contrary I did not want to play weak/tight poker on the bubble.

I'm still not sure what the correct answer is, but I'd be interested to hear what some of the other players have to say.

[schwza]

i hate a fold. there's no way i fold 88 either.

[-Oz-]

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On the contrary I did not want to play weak/tight poker on the bubble.

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A laudable goal, but letting a hand go in a very marginal situation is not weak-tight (raising half your stack and then folding a "good" flop is [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] ). Many medium pairs play similarly: if the money goes in, you are almost always a small favorite or big dog. 99 is certainly better than 88 or 77, but it still plays very much like a medium pair.

While it sucks to lay down 99 (or 88 or 77) to a raise in position preflop, it is often the correct play.

Aside: In the "old" days (4 years ago or so), this is the exact same conversation we'd be having about JJ! The looseness and agressiveness of the average player has risen such that 99 is now (to me) the border hand.

-Oz-

[Lloyd]

99 is definitely too good to fold in this spot. Against what you have described as one of the looser players at the table, you are clearly ahead of his range. You're stack is in a precarious state. You're not so big that you can just spew off chips without feeling some pain. But you need more chips in order to have a chance of going deep in the tourney. You need the chips in this hand.

There are a couple of problems with calling. First, what is your plan on the flop? You can't call for set value so you have to be willing to get your chips in under other conditions as well. What if you flop an overpair? What if overcards come but no Ace? How many overcards can come? Before you call you have to develop a game plan. You do have position and can use that to your advantage. The bigger problem with calling is the squeeze play. Now, this is not a big buy-in tourney so most players might not understand how to take advantage of it. But this is the perfect opportunity against a loose player and somebody who is paying attention but playing rather cautiously. If I'm the big stack I might very well push any 2 cards right here. Calling also makes it a pretty good price for the BB to just call if he wants to see a relatively cheap flop.

Pushing also has its problems, of course. The blinds have yet to act and either could wake up with a big hand. The original raiser could actually have something solid in which case we are probably a coin flip at best. But you do have some folding equity. If you push (assuming the blinds fold), he's getting about 1.7 to 1 and should fold any marginal hand.

There is no easy answer here. It's one of those hands where you have to be sitting at the table and have a good feel for the game. If I've seen the original raiser opening lots of pots I'd probably push. But it's close (between pushing and calling, not folding).

[beetyjoose]

Great responses guys. I just wish I had more than 30 seconds to make a decision at the table [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[betgo]

Based in your read that the raiser was loose, I would push or maybe call. The important thing is that the raiser continued to play loose throughout the bubble period. If someone was playing tight in the bubble period, he probably has a strong hand, so then this is an easy fold.

If you push the raiser is not getting pot odds to call with anything, so you have a chance to pick up the pot. If he was really stealing, he will have to fold. You are a 57-43 favorite against ace-paint-offsuit plus pot odds. If you are called, on average it is EV-, but the 2400 chips you pick up if you win the pot uncontested make up for that. I think this is a good semibluff reraise. There is a 4% chance either blinds has TT-AA and TT is probably not calling.

You could also flat call, You have position and a hand where it is fairly easy to tell where you stand.

No real flop that doesn't contain a 9 will be too safe looking for 9's, so I would never call here at this stage. Its a clear push to me, but not because it is a much higher EV play than folding. This move may cost you the tournament a lot, but moves like this win tournaments as well. You need the chips, and you will most likely NOT see a better hand, combined with your read on the MP you have to push here. If you did not have this read however, MP's raise would seem much scarier, as if he had a weaker holding he should be pushing all-in. Or perhaps he does have a weaker holding and will push on any flop. Or I'm just giving him too much credit. I would have to make my own observations. With YOUR read however, easy push, and without it, I think its still much more favorable to push than fold to me, IF you are playing to win. Can't play to get in the money and win at the same time, heh.