lay this down on the turn?

[DpR]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Isn't AK spades the most likely hand for villian here? or at worst a PP bigger than 10 with a spade? This guy has solid stats and cold called 4 bets pre flop. Doesn't that almost have to be AA, KK, QQ, AKs?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, this is his range of hands, but almost half of these hands do not have a spade in them. True, he raised the turn, so it's a little more likely that he does have a spade. However, AA and KK with no spades both likely believe they are ahead on the turn and want to charge a spade draw the maximum.

There's only 1 way he can have AKs, but MANY ways he can have an overpair. A rivered straight or set is very likely to be good. A rivered spade isn't good as often as we'd like, but he'll call with a lot more hands than he'll bet, and is unlikely to bluff raise since his hand will almost certainly have some showdown value. Betting and getting called as an underdog is better than checking and calling as an even bigger underdog.

Good luck.
Eric

[/ QUOTE ]

So why are you betting a spade again?

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Isn't AK spades the most likely hand for villian here? or at worst a PP bigger than 10 with a spade? This guy has solid stats and cold called 4 bets pre flop. Doesn't that almost have to be AA, KK, QQ, AKs?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, this is his range of hands, but almost half of these hands do not have a spade in them. True, he raised the turn, so it's a little more likely that he does have a spade. However, AA and KK with no spades both likely believe they are ahead on the turn and want to charge a spade draw the maximum.

There's only 1 way he can have AKs, but MANY ways he can have an overpair. A rivered straight or set is very likely to be good. A rivered spade isn't good as often as we'd like, but he'll call with a lot more hands than he'll bet, and is unlikely to bluff raise since his hand will almost certainly have some showdown value. Betting and getting called as an underdog is better than checking and calling as an even bigger underdog.

Good luck.
Eric

[/ QUOTE ]

So why are you betting a spade again?

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? Do you just want me to retype what I already wrote? A lot of hands he can have don't have a spade. I think he'll call with these but not bet them. I don't think expect to be raised by anything less than the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. I'm not ready to check-fold a flush, so betting and getting called as an underdog is... well, read it again.

good luck.
eric

[ike]

Very good post. This is exactly right IMO.

[goofball]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If the fourth spade comes though I just can't think of a single hand a reasonable villian plays like this that we beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here are three:

A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

There are three more pairs of kings that might play just like this as well. In this huge pot, waiting for the turn to raise the big pair is a reasonable move. In fact, if he had A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], he'd probably go nuts on the flop, with his big draw, hoping it will be checked to him on the turn.

Good luck.
Eric

[/ QUOTE ]


Doh, you're absolutely right. I'd forgotten we had a spade when I got to that last paragraph. You're right, even if we call every time we're raised, and even if the K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] raises occaisonally, we're losing too much value from all the non spade hands not to bet.

[steveyz]

Results and Thoughts.

I called, and check-called a blank river to be shown AA (with the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img])

I think it's a clear call on this turn as I have odds to draw out every hand except AKs (perhaps AQs although this player might fold that preflop).

I think on the river, it's a bet-fold on a spade, bet-call on an non-spade T or 8.

I think the toughest decision here is weather or not to call a blank river. I'm leaning towards folding, but it's a huge pot.

[Paluka]

I do not understand the point of raising this flop.

[steveyz]

You don't think AK/AQ without a spade might fold?

[Paluka]

[ QUOTE ]
You don't think AK/AQ without a spade might fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

Making that hand fold doesn't help you when you aren't winning, and I don't think it is very likely that you are. The guy with QQ will thank you though after AK folds.

[Paluka]

I want to talk about this hand more.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
I want to talk about this hand more.

[/ QUOTE ]

what do you think of calling the flop and folding for a raise and 3 bet back?

if you dont fold i assume you call and fold a bad turn and raise a good one...but you do have the Ts and a redraw if nobody has a higher spade and the turn comes as it did..

Barron