Not Optimum: Hand 1

[JTG51]

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Against a range of opponent hands restricted to exactly AA/KK/QQ/AKs/AKo/AQs my TT wins 38.4% of the time HU.

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Guys that raise 7% of their hands preflop don't 3-bet AQs and probably don't 3-bet AKs either.



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So I need pot odds of 2.6:1 (72.33:27.67 to be exact) to make this call profitable.

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That's a bigger problem. You're not all in preflop, so you can't just look at preflop equity when deciding if you should play.

[naphand]

I think a lot of them will 3-bet AKs, AQs is doubtful I agree.

As for the pot equity, using all-in simulations is problematic of course but for the purposes of argument it is useful to see where I stand.

The all-in argument presumes all things being equal post-flop i.e. I neither make a net gain or loss playing the hand to SD versus my opponents. If I consider myself a capable player post-flop then the argument is reasonably valid IMO.

Your point is not lost though, but I do not think we should dismiss the all-in simulation - it at least forms a starting point for discussion.

[Innocentius]

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If UTG+1 caps, when it is back to me I will be comfortably getting odds to call again.


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This is another problem with calling three cold. When you consider your odds, you have to take this possibility into consideration. Say that we are sure that UTG+1 is going to cap. Then the odds we are getting are actually 10.33:4 or 2.58:1. Of course, you cannot be sure of this, but the possibility makes your odds slimmer than the 2.78:1 you get from assuming that he will call.

Also, I think the likely hand range of MP here is more like AA/KK/QQ/AKs. This has you in bad shape.

[Erik W]

Fold PF
Fold Flop
Raise River

1 right out of 3

With the action he have KK/AA (95%).
Since a king is out there is 3 ways he have KK and 6 ways AA
so that is 67% AA. Since he played it so strongly and did not fear KK anywhere I'd say it is more like 75/25 so raise river and call a 3-bet.

[Dagger78]

Alright, I fold this pre-flop. You MAY be ahead, but alot of flops could be very difficult to play if your hand is best. Plus you're not getting odds to flop a set.

So since we make it to the turn, I think calling actually gets you more info than raising this time. If you call and UTG raises, and MP1 caps, you can fold (at least I would). If you call and UTG calls, you can raise any non diamond, three or overcard turn.

MP1's hand confuses me, I really have no idea what he has, I think it's time for a flat call on the river, but as I've previously stated I'm a wuss.

Personally, this hand should have been over with the pre-flop fold.