Chasing my set (implied odds question)

[DeezNutz3]

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this turn isnt getting checked through unless you know mp2 is really really passive. perfect spot for a check raise.

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[grjr]

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this turn isnt getting checked through unless you know mp2 is really really passive. perfect spot for a check raise.

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Yeah, right or wrong, I definately wouldn't have thought of betting out on the turn. It's just set up too perfect for the c/r.

[Watain]

On this unscary board then you are pretty much on a freeroll if you hit the 4 on the turn. I guess at least 4 big bets extra in this hand from you opponents would be the average, so i would even consider going as low as 1:14. But that would also be dependent on the opponents.

[deception5]

Closing the action on the flop you have to call this.

I would have check/raised the turn without hesitation here. Sometimes it gets through but a bet could easily be raised by MP2 here blowing away the field and losing a lot of potential profit. And there's a good chance he'll bet again (he bet into the preflop raiser on the flop after all). The payoff if he does is huge.

[gharp]

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47 unknown cards, only 2 help Hero. That's 23.5:1.

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Not to be a super-nit about all this, but by that math a flush draw would be:

47/9 = 5.2 -> 5.2:1

...which I think we all know is wrong (it's about 4:1). The thing you're forgetting to do is drop one from the larger number to convert it into the odds format. So the actual number is 22.5:1 (Flop->Turn).

[bozlax]

First, cut off your hand history where you have a question. I'm not going to look at the turn action in responding (although I noticed you made your set), and I'm grunching (I usually do, but odds calcs are tough for me, sometimes, so this time I'm specifying it).

On the flop you're getting 18:1, safe, drawing to a 2-outer (you have no backdoor draws). You can't continue just to see the turn (2/47 = 22:1, about). If you count going all the way to the river, let's assume that the betting pattern will be the same, and let's say you'll lose one more opponent; so, when it gets to you the pot'll be 12.5 BB, so you'll be spending 1.5 bets to win 12, or 8:1, and your pot odds are 2/47 + 2/46 = ~10:1. Am I right so far?

If you hit your set on the turn, I think you can probably make up the deficit with a well-hidden strong hand. If you don't hit it until the river, I'm not so sure. And, if you don't hit it on the turn and button is slow-playing AA/KK/QQ planning to raise the turn, or you lose too many opponents, then your odds go faaar into the toilet.

So, depending on a read on Button/MP2 and how tricky and aggro they are, and how passive the rest of the field is, I call this on the flop, but that's the last money I'll put in the pot without seeing a 4. You can surely make up 4SB if you hit on the turn, but you're almost certainly not going to have enough to play to the river.

Now to go see what everybody else said.

[SlantNGo]

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I would have check/raised the turn without hesitation here. Sometimes it gets through but a bet could easily be raised by MP2 here blowing away the field and losing a lot of potential profit. And there's a good chance he'll bet again (he bet into the preflop raiser on the flop after all). The payoff if he does is huge.

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If I have a read on MP2 as likely to bet again, or if we were both in EP, then I would go for the C/R. But a late position bettor on a harmless board... I think it gets checked through here a lot. Here's a hand from 5/10 B&M Saturday night where I decided to C/R.

Hero is dealt KK UTG.
Hero raises, folded to Niners Jersey (MP) who calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Qxx rainbow flop. Hero bets, Niners Jersey raises, SB calls, BB folds, Hero calls.

Turn pairs the board and improves Hero to a boat. Hero checks, Niners Jersey bets, SB calls, Hero raises, both call.

River blank, Hero bets, Niners Jersey calls, SB folds.

MHIG, Niners Jersey mucked.

I had been sitting with Niners Jersey for 3 hours, and never once did he check after betting or raising the previous round (even when 4 to a straight or flush came up). Hence I decided to trap on the turn rather than 3-betting the flop.

[magates]

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47 unknown cards, only 2 help Hero. That's 23.5:1.

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47 cards, 2 outs = 45/2 = 22.5:1

[detruncate]

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47 unknown cards, only 2 help Hero. That's 23.5:1.

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Not to be a super-nit about all this, but by that math a flush draw would be:

47/9 = 5.2 -> 5.2:1

...which I think we all know is wrong (it's about 4:1). The thing you're forgetting to do is drop one from the larger number to convert it into the odds format. So the actual number is 22.5:1 (Flop->Turn).

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I'm sure it doesn't much matter to harv, but it's important that this doesn't get confusing for people newer to the game.

You're right. It's 22.5:1.

Another way of looking at it:

Out of 47 unseen cards, there are 45 that won't help you and 2 that will. That's 45:2, or 22.5:1.

Out of the 46 unseen cards on the turn, 44 cards won't help and 2 will, so 44:2 = 22:1.

Similarly, the ratio of bad to good cards with a flush draw (assuming your flush outs are all you have) is 38:9 on the flop (~4.22:1), and 37:9 on the turn (~4.11:1).

[krimson]

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47 unknown cards, only 2 help Hero. That's 23.5:1.


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47 unknowns, 2 help, this would make the odds 2:45, not 2:47.

Think of a coinflip, a coinflip has odds of 1:1, not 1:2.

OP: I think this is an easy flop call. Getting 18:1 and closing the action. You will easily be able to make up a couple BB's on the turn/river with 5 players going to the turn in a big pot.