1 – 2 NL (200 max) at Turning Stone Hand #2

[DaveduFresne]

Tight player has one of a very few hands (unless you and I's definition of tight are diferrent). He either hit a set on the flop, has pocket sixes, or potentially Jacks or Tens.

I put my money on a set here. If he really is tight and is about to leave, he is not going to involve himself in a hand that isn't a monster.

I know the mentallity of a tight player who wants to protect a small win, I get that feeling all the time. He's simply not going to involve himself without an overpair or set. He checks on the end because of the straight possibility, afraid he'll get raised if he bets.

Loose passive guy being in there is even worse, personally I hate the bluff here. If loose passive was the one about to leave, I might like it.

[Proofrock]

[ QUOTE ]
Tight player has one of a very few hands (unless you and I's definition of tight are diferrent). He either hit a set on the flop, has pocket sixes, or potentially Jacks or Tens.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was vague and misleading when I called him tight. What I should have written was, "tight-ish, timid, and straightforward" -- large bet = strong hand, small bet = marginal hand. That being said, based on limp-call preflop, I'd put him on something like 9 10s here. He's likely to be playing especially timidly right now, because he's racking up to leave, and I don't think he's willing to jeopardize his winning session without a strong hand.

The issue, as I see it, is I definitely can't beat tightish player's hand, but it should be easy to push him off of his hand, especially with a third player left to act behind him. Loose passive player could have a busted draw or an especially weak hand, or he could have a monster like 9 8. I expect that he's calling just about any bet with 9x or better and is folding most other hands to any reasonable bet.

If either player bets before me, I muck. Since they both checked, I either muck or take a stab at it. I decided to take a stab at it for the reasons stated above. Given this, the only question is how much to bet. A larger bet than $80 seems better, but only if it adds significant folding equity. Given the calling station in the hand, I'm not sure a larger bet accomplishes this, but perhaps I'm overestimating how far he'll go with top pair, in which case 150 now seems like a much better bet to me.

-cj