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#11
08-20-2005, 07:17 PM
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Re: I hate tangling with the bigstack... $33
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] That being said. A lot of donkeys really tighten up at this stage. I don't think they really want to tangle with the 2nd stack without a real hand. [/ QUOTE ] You're giving a donkey credit for thinking a hand through? Isn't that an oxymoron? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Well a little maybe. Psychology is still a big part of the game though. Donkeys still want to cash, since their ITM % is prolly somewhere between 25-30%. 
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#12
08-20-2005, 07:21 PM
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Re: I hate tangling with the bigstack... $33
[ QUOTE ]
Exactly. Donkeys call with K10 and A9 etc. Especially if they feel they are being challenged with a big stack. Although you would be ahead, you're risking your entire game when you don't have to. That is why I am a little hesitant. This has happend to me so many times that I considered it a -$EV leak and since then my results have improved. I am only talking about this specific situation though. [/ QUOTE ] I've run no numbers, but my feeling is that if he's generally calling you on the wrong side of 70-30 (and with underpairs, as well) this is going to be fine. The story might be a little different with just MP and not UTG. I push here, I think you're leaving a little too much on the table if you don't. I can see where it might be close.
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#13
08-20-2005, 07:29 PM
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Re: I hate tangling with the bigstack... $33
Well, I think if he pushes you have yourself a fold. However he didn't push so the question is, what is his range and how much FE do you have? The only hands you want calls from here are underpairs and two undercards. A call from a hand like A8 is about neutral $EV. If he calls with, say, 66+/AT+/KT+/QJ and folds the rest, he needs to be folding to your re-raise about half the time. Do you think his raising range is wide enough & his calling range tight enough?
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#14
08-20-2005, 07:42 PM
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Re: I hate tangling with the bigstack... $33
[ QUOTE ]
A call from a hand like A8 is about neutral $EV [/ QUOTE ] Because of the deadchips? (I have done no math here) [ QUOTE ] Well, I think if he pushes you have yourself a fold. [/ QUOTE ] Thanks for the insight. Just ran through SGA. Yes, I see it is a fold. Didn't know that. As a side note, if I use a loose pushing range, but remove QQ-AA, it actually comes out to be $EV neutral. [ QUOTE ] Do you think his raising range is wide enough & his calling range tight enough? [/ QUOTE ] I think this is the correct assumption for all donkeys, and each one is different. I'm glad I put this through SGA. I can't believe how marginal JJ here is. Intuitively, I assume that this is true because I have such a large stack. If my stack was noticeably smaller, this must be +$EV. For example, if my stack was the size of BB's, it appears this is +$EV. Unfortunately, his stack is also more susceptible to getting called. Interesting...
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#15
08-20-2005, 07:56 PM
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Re: I hate tangling with the bigstack... $33
Someone once told me this is a great spot (if you were BB) to run a stop and go. Too risky from the SB?
[ QUOTE ] Donkeys still want to cash, since their ITM % is prolly somewhere between 25-30%. [/ QUOTE ] I gotta remember to keep my ITM% above this range.
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#16
08-20-2005, 08:14 PM
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Re: I hate tangling with the bigstack... $33
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] A call from a hand like A8 is about neutral $EV Because of the deadchips? (I have done no math here) [/ QUOTE ] I ran SNGPT giving him a pushing range of exactly A8. A push and call should have the same SNGPT $EV as a raise, re-raise , and call, right? You make a good point abour removing QQ-AA from his range when he pushes. Given how rarely the average player will open-push a premium pair in a spot like this, I guess calling the push would be more reasonable. I still think I prefer a fold, though.
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