Getting it all in with a draw on the flop (theory post) - Page 2

wtfsvi · #11 08-19-2005, 04:19 AM

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Good post. I think, in general, draws should be played aggressively against players that are either weak or capable of folding big hands. Against most players, they should be played passively.

[/ QUOTE ] Against most small stakes players at least. I'm however not question the value of playing draws aggressively, I'm questioning the value of getting money in on the flop rather than the turn, just because your draw has better equity there. It was to isolate that factor I chose a scenario with 0 folding equity and certainty villain would push any turn. If villain wouldn't push the turn 100% of the time (but still call if we pushed) that would greatly favor calling and if villain would sometimes lay down his overpair on the flop or turn (or sometimes have AK), that would greatly favor pushing. The choice between calling and folding would mostly come down to those two factors weighed against each other (How often will he not push the turn, what will he do in stead, how often will he lay down an overpair on the flop, how often will he lay it down when these and these cards hit the turn, and so on.) I deliberatly left those conciderations out of the scenario though (along with meta-game conciderations) because I wanted to isolate a point: We'll have the benefit of being able to fold some turns, that I showed in the OP, on the call-side of the scale, not the push-side (where I see some people putting it when they give advice).

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Edit: This is a minor violation of the 5/10 rule though [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]Not really [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

EDIT: Small error in the OP. He'll have three outs to the boat when the 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] hits. The impact of this is probably close to none-existant though.
EDIT again: Oh yes, that's right, I didn't bother to calculate the 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] thing anyway, so the error didn't make my math more right or wrong [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

fuzzbox · #12 08-19-2005, 07:13 AM

The only reason you perceive yourself to have close to zero fold equity is because you reraised preflop, and then called the subsequent 3-bet. You got 20% of your stack in preflop, and that was a big mistake.

Pushing here is good because even if he folds even a small amount, you are +EV at this point (you already made a 20BB mistake earlier in the hand).

You push for 80, and there is 63 in the middle. You guestimate that you win 45% of the times that he calls, then you are betting 80 to win 123 if he calls, which is 1.5/1 (aka 60/40) on a 55/45 shot (good odds for you), and if he folds then you win 63 right now, which is clearly +EV.

Any folding equity at all is quite big for you.

If you call then you are committed to calling the turn (pot will be 83 and you will have 60 left, and you will have at least 13 outs, so you will have odds, when he pushes.

Sooooo you are going to see the hand out regardless of what happens, and even if you have 1% fold-equity, you gain by pushing. And every % you gain in fold-equity is big (but it doesnt matter because you already profit by 5% by pushing and having him call).

wtfsvi · #13 08-19-2005, 07:46 AM

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The only reason you perceive yourself to have close to zero fold equity is because you reraised preflop, and then called the subsequent 3-bet. You got 20% of your stack in preflop, and that was a big mistake.

[/ QUOTE ] How was I supposed to know the sb had AA when I reraised? Do you advocate folding to the 3-bet? I hope not.

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You push for 80, and there is 63 in the middle. You guestimate that you win 45% of the times that he calls, then you are betting 80 to win 123 if he calls, which is 1.5/1 (aka 60/40) on a 55/45 shot (good odds for you), and if he folds then you win 63 right now, which is clearly +EV.

Any folding equity at all is quite big for you.

[/ QUOTE ] Yes. So is "will-check-the-turn-to-you-so-you-can-check-behind equity". But we don't have any of either of those equities in this scenario. Read my reply to Malachi, I address this.

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If you call then you are committed to calling the turn (pot will be 83 and you will have 60 left, and you will have at least 13 outs, so you will have odds, when he pushes.

[/ QUOTE ] I will have at least 12 outs, unless the turn is a 4 or an A/K that makes villain a set, then I'll have 10 outs. And I won't have odds to call, even when I have 12 outs.

Did you read the post at all?

EDIT: Even if there were five sixes in the deck, so I could have 13 outs, I still wouldn't have odds to call the turn.

edited to replace 10.75 outs with 10 outs. Where did I get that from? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] It's not really sufficient to say just how many outs there are though. Since our how many cards we know to be dead will vary depending on the type of outs.