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#12
08-17-2005, 09:35 PM
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Re: is this a good turn bet to build pot or am i overaggressieve
I don't know your mentor, but he's clearly clinically insane. If your Villan is holding K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Jo, you have 49% equity; if your Villan is holding K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]xo, you have almost 90% equity (numbers according to PokerStove). So, unless he's holding a flush already (and he'd be insane to bet that flop with a made flush), then you're not worse than even money against anything he can be holding, and you're a HUGE favorite over his most likely holdings.
That's why. 
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#14
08-17-2005, 09:40 PM
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Re: is this a good turn bet to build pot or am i overaggressieve
I'm betting here because Villain is on a flush draw too, so if the flush misses on the river, I'm going to win an extra bet from him with this turn bet after he folds on the river.
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#15
08-17-2005, 09:41 PM
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Re: is this a good turn bet to build pot or am i overaggressieve
Tks for the explanation. HE says runnin ps you get less than fifty but i dont have ps yet and so i cant answer for myself. However you brought up an interesting point of why wouldnt he be betting his flush here. Its a small pot that is short handed shouldnt he be betting while he can. A check raise does little here and if it gets checked thru to the turn he probably blows away the field with one bet. THanks for replying and sorry im so uneducated when it comes to poker
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#16
08-17-2005, 09:43 PM
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Re: is this a good turn bet to build pot or am i overaggressieve
Hypothetically, Villan is holding 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. A blank falls on the river. Are you going to bet into Hero? Are you going to raise him when he bets into you after you check?
You're also assuming that Villan has a made hand, but are ignoring your overcard outs when talking about 30% (actually 35%) chance of making your hand on the river. You're at worst 50/50 against Villan's most likely BEST hands, only behind severely to an already-made flush.
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#17
08-17-2005, 09:43 PM
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Re: is this a good turn bet to build pot or am i overaggressieve
[ QUOTE ]
I'm betting here because Villain is on a flush draw too, so if the flush misses on the river, I'm going to win an extra bet from him with this turn bet after he folds on the river. [/ QUOTE ] What if villain has Jx? Then he isn't on a flush draw and he's ahead. The reason you bet here is a) to fold out 8x, b) to take a free showdown if you miss.
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#18
08-17-2005, 09:45 PM
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Re: is this a good turn bet to build pot or am i overaggressieve
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'm betting here because Villain is on a flush draw too, so if the flush misses on the river, I'm going to win an extra bet from him with this turn bet after he folds on the river. [/ QUOTE ] What if villain has Jx? Then he isn't on a flush draw and he's ahead. The reason you bet here is a) to fold out 8x, b) to take a free showdown if you miss. [/ QUOTE ] No, I'm betting here because villain is on a flush draw, that's why I said that's why I'm betting. If he has Jx, big whoop.
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#19
08-17-2005, 09:46 PM
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Re: is this a good turn bet to build pot or am i overaggressieve
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I'm betting here because Villain is on a flush draw too, so if the flush misses on the river, I'm going to win an extra bet from him with this turn bet after he folds on the river. [/ QUOTE ] What if villain has Jx? Then he isn't on a flush draw and he's ahead. The reason you bet here is a) to fold out 8x, b) to take a free showdown if you miss. [/ QUOTE ] No, I'm betting here because villain is on a flush draw, that's why I said that's why I'm betting. If he has Jx, big whoop. [/ QUOTE ] I don't understand
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#20
08-17-2005, 09:47 PM
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Re: is this a good turn bet to build pot or am i overaggressieve
He's actually right about the PokerStove analysis. I was running it from the flop. From the turn, against K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] you've got 43% equity.
But, I still say you have to bet this turn. If you check the turn and don't catch a spade on the river, your Villan is going to know you didn't make your hand. If you bet you leave the door open that you've ALREADY made your flush, or that you've got better than top pair (you did raise preflop). If you check the turn and a spade, ace or queen doesn't fall on the river, you're going to have to fold to his bet or check to his check.
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