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#12
08-14-2005, 02:07 PM
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Re: KK faces 2 cold on the river scare card
[ QUOTE ]
i don't get why you check the turn? [/ QUOTE ] I know this was supposed to be an accident, but I think I check this as well. I think we are in a lot of trouble and our hand doesn't need that much protection. I'm pretty sure I bet TT here, but I think i check this. 
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#13
08-14-2005, 02:10 PM
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Re: KK faces 2 cold on the river scare card
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] i don't get why you check the turn? [/ QUOTE ] I know this was supposed to be an accident, but I think I check this as well. I think we are in a lot of trouble and our hand doesn't need that much protection. I'm pretty sure I bet TT here, but I think i check this. [/ QUOTE ] protection? screw protection, i'm betting this for value. the pot is big and i think we are ahead of anyone still in the hand so far. really, i'm probably only slowing down to a cap here for fear of AA and QQ, but that's it. call me crazy, but the showing of weakness on the turn is what opened the doors for the misplay on the river.
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#16
08-14-2005, 02:27 PM
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Re: KK faces 2 cold on the river scare card
My initial reaction was to call because of the size of the pot. However, after thinking about it for a little bit, I think this is a close call between a call and a fold.
I think you're very likely beaten, particularly in light of these players being passive yet betting as they have. I suspect a FH or a set, or a higher 2-pair. In terms of the call/fold decision (let's not consider raising for the moment), 22.25 BB for the moment + another 5 BB which I believe will be made, combined, by the villains, for a total of 27.25 BB. It will cost you 4 BB to showdown this pot. So, your odds to make this call are really 27.25-to-4, or 6.8-to-1, or 14.7%. So, I think the question is whether you win more than 14.7% of the time here. Since I don't think you win more than 14.7% of the time here (I think the number is more like 5-10% of the time), then it may well be right to fold. That said, I think it would be awfully tough to actually bring myself to fold here with that hand in that pot. I also wonder whether it would be better to raise if I made the decision that calling was better than folding, and if I thought it was going to end up being 4 bets anyhow b/c of my opponents' raising/capping.
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#17
08-14-2005, 02:33 PM
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Re: KK faces 2 cold on the river scare card
[ QUOTE ]
i think we are ahead of anyone still in the hand so far. [/ QUOTE ] I'm not sure I see why you think this in light of the passive reads but aggressive behavior by the villains through the flop. Can you please explain your reasoning?
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#18
08-14-2005, 05:35 PM
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Re: KK faces 2 cold on the river scare card
[ QUOTE ]
That said, I think it would be awfully tough to actually bring myself to fold here with that hand in that pot. [/ QUOTE ] No kidding. If I knew it wouldn't get reraised behind me, it might change the decision to a call. Even then, I've really been trying to evaluate these river decisions strictly in terms of whether or not it's a profitable call, and here it just didn't seem like mhig often enough. UTG+1 waking up is bad, and the button's raising is worse still. Looking at the results, the button played it really well.
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#20
08-14-2005, 07:05 PM
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Re: KK faces 2 cold on the river scare card
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] i think we are ahead of anyone still in the hand so far. [/ QUOTE ] I'm not sure I see why you think this in light of the passive reads but aggressive behavior by the villains through the flop. Can you please explain your reasoning? [/ QUOTE ] i don't see anything out of the norm here. capping preflop: AA-TT, AK. we thought our hand was best on the flop enough to cap, i don't see how that has changed enough on the turn. UTG has bet once on the flop which could be any pocket pair, not necessarily trips. if he had capped the flop or done something on the turn: yeah, i'd be worried, but one bet isn't enough for me to through this hand away. i think the turn and river action can only be looked at that we didn't keep up aggression, so naturally Button is going to bet thinking his hand is best. edit: just to be clear i am talking about the turn check not the river.
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