Dead AA in capped pot

[J.R.]

Yeah, because you took away KK's set outs and also made sure it couldn't make the nut flush (all 4 aces are out) or nut straight (AK makes broadway).

I also think you give way to much credit to Colorado games. You try to assign players reasonable hands when, in family capped pot situations, you are often up against bingo style players who will play any two suited and two gap hands. You have no idea how easy these games are and how horrible these players can be.

As an example, I had AA two weeks ago, and was rasied and re-raised and capped against pre-flop, in a multiway pot, by 4 [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] , which made a straight after a 5 on the turn and a 6 on the river on and A3T rainbow flop. These players are true gamblers playing little more than bingo-style poker and there poor play can not be understated. Folding AA here was plain horrible.

[pingu]

JR,

Fair enough, I realise my example was somewhat contrived and improbable in this particular game, but I would still expect more high cards than in an unraised or single raise pot thereby having the aforementioned effect of it hurting other high card hands more than your AA.

Rgds,
Steve.

[rharless]

Just curious, was your AA hand at 5-5?

I do agree with your basic point though that the hands in that sim are way too good for Colorado capped pots. I do think that the distribution of high card/good hands, in a capped 2-5 Colorado pot, IS higher than just a random distribution. That said, the hands listed in the sim are definitely too good for what CO players might be holding.

Here is a sim I did from twodimes. My point in posting it is that ONE sim is inconclusive b/c this one is so different in results (and I would say misleading -- better not show this to my friend or he'll use it to prove his side [img]/forums/images/icons/wink.gif[/img]). I did a different random picking of hands earlier today that yielded 15% for AA. I'd be interested in a more robust sim from TTH.

<pre><font class="small">code:</font><hr>
As Ac 7.53
Ad Qh 2.97
Ah 5h 6.88
Ks Kc 20.83
8s 8d 14.33
Tc Jh 9.38
9c 6d 11.16
5s 7d 9.28
Th 4h 4.67
Qs 2s 9.75
</pre><hr>

[bernie]

the only time id think of mucking AA preflop is in a tourney. even then, it's rare. but thats the only time.

about sims.

as (i think jimbo mentioned), one thing about sims is that many are unrealistic as far as play during the hand. not everyone is going to the showdown. so the results are going to be a little skewed. but they will give you an idea to chew on...

if a hand like T9o won this pot, your friend is leaving alot of chips on the table in a game like this folding AA here. im sure there are other plays, maybe even postflop, where he gives up too easy. be careful what you learn from him

someone mentioned AA winning 20% in this spot. thats about 5-1. and youre getting much better odds with all the callers. the trick is knowing when to dump it postflop and not throw rice at the wedding. after all, after the honeymoon, AA just shacks up with everyone else anyway.

b

[rharless]

Wow, this post has only been up for 90 minutes and already a nice thread of responses! [img]/forums/images/icons/smile.gif[/img]

I personally thought the AA muck was ridiculous (especially since it's the other naked A hands that are dead, not his) but he stood so hard and fast by his decision that I wanted to see if there was some bizarre aberration in the stats that I was not aware of.

[tewall]

Just curious. What hands was he playing?

[rharless]

Supposedly, this was a freak hand at the table as normally it was a basic loose table. I didn't ask him what hands he WOULD play in this spot, but he did say he would play AA if he thought the other two As were live.

Other than that, I don't think he'd play any non-"live AA" hand in a capped pot (in Colorado structure) as that does not suit his style of play. If at a table of 9 maniacs, aka "river lotto", he would switch to a table where he can be the boss and drive the pots that he's in.

[Clarkmeister]

" he did say he would play AA if he thought the other two As were live. "

Does that mean he plays roulette only if he "thinks that red is coming up"?

[oddjob]

i was in a similar situation a while back. i had AA's. there were about 8 people in, and it was capped. someone did have the other AA's. you know what? we ended up splitting a gigantic pot.

i knew someone else had it too. but it turned out everyone had such high cards that everyone essentially had everyone else's outs.

[gilly]

If other people have AK and your hand is dead those two need miracles to beat you. The other aces being dead means big trouble for the other two players wtih aces in their hands. No way you should lay this hand down. You have the best hand.