A post to put all of your results in to perspective... - Page 2

astarck · #11 08-12-2005, 09:59 PM

While knowing your game and sticking to it is fine, I do have a problem with it. It never allows any room for improvment. Taking shots at higher levels does allow you to eventually adjust (along with lots of reading/studying/practicing/etc).

If making quick cash or never advancing is your goal, then staying put is more than fine.

eastbay · #12 08-12-2005, 10:13 PM

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Forgot to add, I'm much better than 12% at the $22s.

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Let's say you're really a 20% player at the 22's. Over 1350 SnGs, you have about a 3% chance of running this bad.

Just a random fact that you can interpret as you will.

eastbay

Mr_J · #13 08-12-2005, 10:25 PM

Ok, so far the responses to this thread are that maybe I'm not a winning player, or at least not much of one. I posted this because I know with 100% certainty, that I'm at least a decent winning player for $33s and below, and that it IS possible to run this poorly over a large sample.

There will be some people here who have been running hot for quite a while. I remember degen had 1k+ $33s with a 30%ish ROI. Curtains hit 36% at the $215s over 700 sngs, etc etc etc. We all know 500 sngs is nothing. 1k doesn't really mean that much. Is it so absurd that a decent player could run so poorly over 1800-1900 sngs? It really isn't, considering the effect a 40 buyin swing had on my previous 1k $22 results.

Look. After 1k $22s I had 21% ROI. The fact that just a 42ish buyin drop causes a drop a 8% or whatever drop in ROI just shows how little a 1k sng sample is.

raptor517 · #14 08-12-2005, 10:30 PM

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Ok, so far the responses to this thread are that maybe I'm not a winning player, or at least not much of one. I posted this because I know with 100% certainty, that I'm at least a decent winning player for $33s and below, and that it IS possible to run this poorly over a large sample.

There will be some people here who have been running hot for quite a while. I remember degen had 1k+ $33s with a 30%ish ROI. Curtains hit 36% at the $215s over 700 sngs, etc etc etc. We all know 500 sngs is nothing. 1k doesn't really mean that much. Is it so absurd that a decent player could run so poorly over 1800-1900 sngs? It really isn't, considering the effect a 40 buyin swing had on my previous 1k $22 results.

Look. After 1k $22s I had 21% ROI. The fact that just a 42ish buyin drop causes a drop a 8% or whatever drop in ROI just shows how little a 1k sng sample is.

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who are u trying to convince? holla

Mr_J · #15 08-12-2005, 10:32 PM

I've run into plenty of these sorts of situations.

What is the chance that a 55% capper I follow loses 20 units at the beginning of a season? What is the chance that a friend misses 2 weeks of betting were my picks go 18-1? What is the chance that I miss posting my picks at ssb (a website) for those 2 weeks? What is the chance that I miss posting twice as many wins as losses? What is the chance that all the sports I bet on lose at the same time yet all finish the season as comfortable winners? What is the chance that I start betting just as a handicapper runs poorly? I could go on and on.

I have no doubts about my skill. I don't think I'm gods gift or anything, just that I'm a good player for my stakes.

You say 3%? This doesn't mean it doesn't happen. That means 3 people for every 100 on this forum will run this poorly. Maybe I'm just unlucky enough to be one of those people.

Mr_J · #16 08-12-2005, 10:34 PM

I'm just trying to point out that this could be variance, and noone replying to the thread seems to accept this as a reasonable possibility.

raptor517 · #17 08-12-2005, 10:34 PM

i duno man.. i know this last post was directed at easty, but it really really really sounds to me like you are trying to convince YOURSELF. right now, instead of doing that.. i challenge you to pick 4 HHs that you have a win in. no1 thinks to look at the HHs they won.. but these are most important. look at the hands u doubled up on, look at the steals you were making.. were they correct? did u get lucky to win? its not about results. pick apart your game tongiht. it will make you a better player. holla

eastbay · #18 08-12-2005, 10:36 PM

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You say 3%? This doesn't mean it doesn't happen. That means 3 people for every 100 on this forum will run this poorly.

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Did you just explain to me what 3% means? Just checking.

eastbay

Nick B. · #19 08-12-2005, 10:37 PM

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i duno man.. i know this last post was directed at easty, but it really really really sounds to me like you are trying to convince YOURSELF. right now, instead of doing that.. i challenge you to pick 4 HHs that you have a win in. no1 thinks to look at the HHs they won.. but these are most important. look at the hands u doubled up on, look at the steals you were making.. were they correct? did u get lucky to win? its not about results. pick apart your game tongiht. it will make you a better player. holla

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I always look at the hand histories that I won when I am running bad.

astarck · #20 08-12-2005, 10:38 PM

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You say 3%? This doesn't mean it doesn't happen. That means 3 people for every 100 on this forum will run this poorly.

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Did you just explain to me what 3% means? Just checking.

eastbay

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3% also means that out of every 100 people 3 of them will try to teach you what 3% means. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]