bottomset, was it overplayed? - Page 2

gharp · #1 08-12-2005, 04:58 PM

Awesome avatar -- I could quote that movie all day.

Like everyone else seems to be saying, I'd slow down on the river. Without reads, I think there's a decent chance you're ahead though. It's hard to see how the 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] helped UTG, but a slow-played AA looks like a definite possibility here.

Here's hoping you flipped over your 2's, took down the pot and said: "There are two types of people in the world: those who flop sets, and those who dig. You dig."

detruncate · #2 08-12-2005, 05:05 PM

UTG's line is confusing. Posting UTG makes me think that they're probably more likely to be bad than a typical unknown -- people do this by accident or for the purposes of deception, but generally it indicates "I was going to call anyway..."

Coldcalls/calls the flop then leads the turn? I'm thinking that Villain improved. Could be 2 pair, could be a set of 7s, could be a pair + flush draw or just flush draw if they're aggressive. It's also possible that they slowplayed something, but I'd expect them to c/r roughly all the time unless they're a thinking LAG -- loose/aggressive players tend to favour trickiness over outright maximization of profit, so the bet/3bet is much less likely. A thinking player might employ it, and I'm willing to consider this possibility despite the pf post. A loose/passive or predictable "bet em if you got em" type would often just lead when they improved, but slowplays are still much more likely to c/r than lead, even from these sorts of players -- they might SNG, but rarely smoothcall/lead.

You obviously have to raise the turn. Your overlay is just too great not to with a strong hand, that many opponents, and no obvious draws. I cap for similar reasons, though I'm starting to suspect that I might be in trouble. Most people who lead this flop don't do a very good job of accurately evaluating their hand, and I'm still thinking that a slowplay would almost certainly have c/r'ed... even coming from a relatively passive player. However, 7s seem increasingly likely. As does a chicken out. And we can't ignore the possibility that Villain is thinking/tricky and was banking on a turn raise. Still, 2-pair is likely enough that I'm not that worried.

UTG leads the river after getting capped on the turn. Another danger sign. Could just be a stab with a busted draw, could be blinders and an overplayed 2-pair... but I'm thinking it's time to consider slowing down soon. I don't hate the raise with MP1 trapped, but once it comes back 3-bet and HU I can't see any value in capping unless I know that Villain is routinely overaggressive.

Duffman · #3 08-12-2005, 05:16 PM

Grunching

Preflop: fine
flop: fine

On the turn, I'd just call the 3-bet. The cap won't make anyone fold that hasn't folded yet, and with two other players still in, I don't think you have the lead here.

I'd call the first river bet, and not take it any further. There seems to be too big of a chance that you're beat, however not big enough to make you fold.

#4 08-12-2005, 05:39 PM

Grunch...

Preflop: looks good, my understanding of the lower PP is that you want to limp in with lots of other people.

Flop: I think this is also good, you probably have the best hand here and it makes sense to raise and reraise.

Turn: UTG decides to start betting now when a 7 hits. I'm having a hard time putting him on a hand. A and a high kicker? A7? T8? A high flush draw? Did he just make a set of 7s? I don't know if I cap here (I might be weak), but I can see where you might still have the best hand.

River: I think I just call UTG's bet instead of raising. Again maybe that's weak, but UTG seems pretty sure that he's got the best hand at this point.

Buckmulligan · #5 08-12-2005, 05:39 PM

Anyone suggesting that hero doesn't have the equity to cap this turn and river can shampoo my crotch.

#6 08-12-2005, 05:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone suggesting that hero doesn't have the equity to cap this turn and river can shampoo my crotch.

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

I was suggesting that he doesnt, but if this is the result for doing that I think I'll go edit my post. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

bottomset · #7 08-12-2005, 05:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone suggesting that hero doesn't have the equity to cap this turn and river can shampoo my crotch.

[/ QUOTE ]

um yeah, this type of thinking leads to a lot of postflop spewing

Buckmulligan · #8 08-12-2005, 05:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
um yeah, this type of thinking leads to a lot of postflop spewing

[/ QUOTE ]

Seriously, What hands are out there that make you think that you don't have better than 25% equity?

Edit: the river is closer than the turn, so if you want to slow down there I suppose that's fine, but slowing down on the turn is a huge mistake.

bottomset · #9 08-12-2005, 05:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
um yeah, this type of thinking leads to a lot of postflop spewing

[/ QUOTE ]

Seriously, What hands are out there that make you think that you don't have better than 25% equity?

[/ QUOTE ]

what makes you think that MP and BTN are calling 4bets on the river?

Buckmulligan · #10 08-12-2005, 05:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
what makes you think that MP and BTN are calling 4bets on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ya, that's a good point. I would play the river as if they are calling because their play seems pretty weak so far and I can't think of many draws taht they have been chiling with. I think our equity is better than 50% anyway though.