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#11
08-12-2005, 11:22 AM
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Re: Is the draw good enough?
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#12
08-12-2005, 11:25 AM
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Re: Is the draw good enough?
[ QUOTE ]
i really hope you're not talking about folding, because if you are please quit poker. and if you're talking about 3-betting, i just call. [/ QUOTE ] All three are swirling together in my mind -- plus the always distracting and irrelevant consideration that I will be leaving the game within the next few hands.
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#13
08-12-2005, 11:25 AM
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Re: Is the draw good enough?
Even if we have to put in four bets on the turn, note that we will be putting in 4 to win the 8.5 already in their plus 4 from each adversary, for a total of 16.5. This is almost exactly the break-even ratio for a flush draw, but with implied odds this call is very safe. The texture of the board means the hands we will likely have to beat are straights and not necessarily sets, so I worry less about having dead outs.
Don't worry about your outs being in other players hands. That only matters when your outs are disproportionately represented in your opponenents hands. I see no reason to believe that at this point, as Herbie likely has the 4 and the early bettor seems to have something real and not just a flush draw (note your hand means he can't have a pair + flush draw).
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#14
08-12-2005, 11:42 AM
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Re: Is the draw good enough?
[ QUOTE ]
Don't worry about your outs being in other players hands. That only matters when your outs are disproportionately represented in your opponenents hands. I see no reason to believe that at this point, as Herbie likely has the 4 and the early bettor seems to have something real and not just a flush draw (note your hand means he can't have a pair + flush draw). [/ QUOTE ] Generally, I don't worry about outs (particularly flush outs) being in other players hands -- and I didn't while playing this hand -- only on my train ride home. Clearly there was a made straight (at least one) out there. I was as near 100% certain as I can be without playing the hand fce up. Both the BB and KP were basically random hands (given the lack of preflop action) and they both loved this board. (Rest assured that this post is more to confirm my live-game reasoning than to justify a wimp out.) (and I have changed my location so that I can live vicariously through young Will.)
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