Choose your own adventure- Set of Jacks vs. Unknown.

[Bukem_]

Did you plan on folding to an all-in?

Cause no way do I like a line that puts you in that spot with this strong of a hand.

[fuzzbox]

Seems like you have to fold your set here.

Unless you feel he can turn up with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] often ?
But since he has to know that YOU could easily have AK , he likely cant do this without AK himself.

[fuzzbox]

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Yeah, KQh would be a very reasonable hand, also. More likely than AK, certainly. But he's a favorite against KQh slightly, also.

Edit: as for 89, it seems generally unlikely. But even against 89, win rate is 29%. Given 89 seems fairly remote, that isn't really enough to sway it.

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I think its wishful thinking that an UTG limp/caller who then lead-pushes that particular flop, has K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

Its almost sure that he has AK, and he might even have A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and be hoping to get a freeroll.

[FrogMouth]

My question would be, why would he push that flop w/ AKh? I feel the push means he doesn't want to see any more cards, OR he is semi-bluffing with a strong draw. You gotta put him on TT, QQ, JQ, or a flush draw and some sort of straight draw. Taking into account for all action your most likley facing TT or KQh. AKh and AKo will either slow play, just raise for value!

[troymclur]

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[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, KQh would be a very reasonable hand, also. More likely than AK, certainly. But he's a favorite against KQh slightly, also.

Edit: as for 89, it seems generally unlikely. But even against 89, win rate is 29%. Given 89 seems fairly remote, that isn't really enough to sway it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think its wishful thinking that an UTG limp/caller who then lead-pushes that particular flop, has K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

Its almost sure that he has AK, and he might even have A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and be hoping to get a freeroll.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was actually thinking that AK would be the one hand he's guaranteed not to have, especially suited. Who gets faces aggression with aggression when holding the nuts + nut draw?

He didn't raise PF which rules out 1010 and AK, logic being that early position needs to get some reads with such strong hands that aren't necessarily 'made' hands. What hands would he merely call from UTG+1? He leads the flop, and comes back over the top of you with his hefty all-in. My guess would be he has two pair or top pair with OESFD. QJ, J10, or KQh possibly 89h but not likely given his call to your raise PF. Easy call IMO.

[crosse91]

well all, i folded~i had no way of knowing if i was ahead or not and was just completely lost. For what it matters i think he had had 8-9 or pckt 10's. One i destroy, the other destroy's me.

Regardless, i still view it as a fold given how absolutely confused i was. Weak tight perhaps but who raises all in w/o the nuts/near nuts on that board?

FWIW, 2 hands later he pulled the same move and had the absolute nuts so i feel better. After he made 300 bucks in like 5 minutes he left, so i wasn't able to really see him play.

[async]

[ QUOTE ]
Seems like you have to fold your set here.

Unless you feel he can turn up with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] often ?
But since he has to know that YOU could easily have AK , he likely cant do this without AK himself.

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A set can easily push here, because it knows it beats weaker hands (like AQ/AJ/KK/AA) and has outs against AK, just like our hero does. The FE could make it worth it depending on the opponent.

Keep in mind that hero is getting 5:3 (so should win 37.5% to break even) and is 30% to beat AKh, so you have to be *quite* sure it's AK or QQ to want to fold this. It's a volatile play to call, but I think it's +EV.

[Rococo]

[ QUOTE ]
well all, i folded~i had no way of knowing if i was ahead or not and was just completely lost. For what it matters i think he had had 8-9 or pckt 10's. One i destroy, the other destroy's me.

Regardless, i still view it as a fold given how absolutely confused i was. Weak tight perhaps but who raises all in w/o the nuts/near nuts on that board?

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Folding here is an abomination for the following reasons (plus about eight others that I didn't bother to list):

1) Given the preflop action, QQ and AK are possible but unlikely. You certainly will see QQ here less often than you will see TT.

2) If your opponent tabled 89 or AK, you almost have proper odds to call. Given the other possibilities, you certainly have proper odds to make this call.

3) Villain's range here is broader than most people realize. It includes TT, 89, QJ, JT, QT, AK, K9, AQ (not necessarily with a flush draw) and KQ.

I really, really hate this fold unless you are playing against a retiree on a fixed income.