AA river action

[irishpint]

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MP2 limps in. We have the ace of spades. He is a TAG. What is he limping in MP that gives him a flush? KQS? KJS? QJS? Kxs? Why in the world would a tag capped the flop OOP with a flush draw? I really expect to see him turn up 33/44 95% of the time.

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holla

[nomadtla]

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I raise it here , call a 3 bet by MP2, and fold if UTG ck raises and MP2 caps. I agree that MP2 most likely has a lower set but a TAG could also play a nut flush draw the same way.


[/ QUOTE ] I'm stupid...

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Not at all. I am more woried about UTG playing a flush draw this way. I feel like MP2 has a set guessing tens cause of preflop action. I'd call here cause I'm worried UTG is trying to "fancy play" his flush.
If I had a specific read on UTG that told me to raise (or if I wasn't such a wus) then I think your line has great merit. We're all learning here man take it easy on yourself and take criticism as freindly not mean. Part of learning is making mistakes. (Though in this case I think your thought process was pretty crisp.)

Peace

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Ok it's late and this has been bugging me on the drive home from work when I made the original post. Since it's late it's a good time for math IMHO. So to try and decide which option has the greatest expectation I'm gonna try and equate this. Now to make an equation of this you have to get some specific #'s. Maybe my numbers don't agree with your ideas but their my #'s and it's late so deal with it.
Basic assumptions for the equations:
1 If UTG has a flush he will allways raise/3-bet, and you know him well enough that you will fold to his raise/3-bet every time. He has the flush 20% of the time.
2 You will win against MP2 75% of the time (maybe an underestamite but had to put a # on it)
3 UTG will always fold for 2 unless he has the flush but will overcall for 1 10% of the time (obviously since he allways raises the flush his overcall is something you beat)
4 MP2 will 3 bet 40% of the time. You will allways call but when he 3 bets you the flush is more likely his holding so you only win that 70% of the time

Ok so lets look at just calling.
[-1*.40]+[((+1*.75)*.90)+((+2*.75)*.10)] =+.425

Now raising
[((-2*.40)*.60)+((-3*.30)*.40)]+[((2*.60)*.60)+((3*.70)*.40)] =.72

So by my math which may be spotty because it's late, raising is more profitable by .3BB.

Now you may question my %'s but I had to have some solid values to do the math, and I think the math (both equation and answers) is corect and it answers the question for me.
Granted as in TOP you can never be this certain about your percentages (even with good reads) but mathmatically I think this shows raising is better.

This was done as much for me as for anyone but I hope it at least gives you something to think about

[aK13]

Let's put villain on a range here.

KsQs, KsJs, TT, QJs, with a small chance of JJs, QQs, KKs (I expect Js not to play like this, and I expect QQ/KK to cap preflop) -- these are his range for capping the flop (Ts on the board eliminates possibility of something like KTs/QTs/JTs).

Since we have the As, impossible for him to AKs/AQs/AJs/ATs.

I call the river, since I don't think we're ahead enough to raise.

[Shillx]

Raise. The chance that MP2 has a flush is small here unless he has exactly 65 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or 52 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

Brad

[closer2313]

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Let's put villain on a range here.

KsQs, KsJs, TT, with a small chance of JJs, QQs, KKs (I expect Js not to play like this, and I expect QQ/KK to cap preflop).

Since we have the As, impossible for him to AsKs.

I call the river.

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Villian limped in preflop then called 2 back to him [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[aK13]

[ QUOTE ]
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Let's put villain on a range here.

KsQs, KsJs, TT, with a small chance of JJs, QQs, KKs (I expect Js not to play like this, and I expect QQ/KK to cap preflop).

Since we have the As, impossible for him to AsKs.

I call the river.

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Villian limped in preflop then called 2 back to him [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

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Oh, I'm retarded. I thought the flop capper was the PFR. Ignore my post completely.

[MATT111]

Raise.

[Durs522]

Grunching...

MP2 limped then called 2 more preflop. He's been pretty tight preflop and aggressive postflop(your reads) so what could he have here. To me, this screams small/mid pp or some suited connector maybe a J10.

He gets real aggressive on the flop so I'm thinking he has a set. UTG seems to be coming along for the ride so he may have the J10-A10. I think there's also a chance that he's on the flush draw and is getting great odds to call.

On the turn I really like just calling here. With the reads that I have on the hand I'm pretty sure we're behind but we're getting great odds.

Once the A falls on the river we have a real strong hand. UTG continues to be passive, MP2 is still aggressive which tells me that he's not afraid of an A10 two pair hand or an AK. I think we need to raise this river since it is pretty likely with just rivered the winning hand. If UTG check-raises 2 opponents I think I would want to fold. However with the price we're getting if it is 1 bet back to us we call, 2 bets I'd most likely fold.

Durs

[Durs522]

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I feel like MP2 has a set guessing tens cause of preflop action.

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I don't think he would limp/call preflop with 1010. It seems much more likely that he limped after one limper with 33/44.

You may have misread the hand as I did the first time confusing MP2 with the preflop raiser MP3.

Durs

[deepsquat]

I raise the river, MP2 did not play this like a FD. This looks like 33, 44 or even 10's if he is tight/passive.
I think you will be good here enough to make this +EV.

Forget an overcall from UTG, he will prob fold anyway now the ace hits.