Where I fold my set...

[dtbog]

[ QUOTE ]

Turn: ($1.55) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $6</font>, Hero folds

I was, and still am, pretty comfortable with this fold. You?

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's do some math!

When the action comes back to you, the pot contains $3.55 and you need to call $5 more.

Let's assume he has a flush. You will improve to beat him on the river 21% of the time

For you to correctly call this bet:

(-5)(0.79) + (0.21)(x) = 0
x = $18.81

Therefore, the break-even point comes when you will make $18.81 profit after hitting your boat on the river.

$3.55 plus his bet of $5 is in the pot for you to win..

$18.81 - $3.55 - $5.00 = $10.26.

Therefore, if you think he will pay you an average of $10.26 on the river when the board pairs, then you need to call on the turn. Otherwise, good fold.

If you want to think of it another way, he needs to call a 3/4 pot bet on the river (when the board pairs) 100% of the time.

Or... he needs to call 100% pot bet on the river (when the board pairs) 3/4 of the itme

Or lastly... he needs to call all-in on the river 36% (10.26/28.45 that he has left) of the time.

(Do you see where I'm going with these calculations?)

All-in-all, I think it's a good fold.. because these percentages seem a little high... but this sort of thinking helps in these situations.

If anyone needs me to explain these calculations in more detail, I certainly can.

[dtbog]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Turn: ($1.55) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $6</font>, Hero folds

I was, and still am, pretty comfortable with this fold. You?

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's do some math!

When the action comes back to you, the pot contains $3.55 and you need to call $5 more.

Let's assume he has a flush. You will improve to beat him on the river 21% of the time

For you to correctly call this bet:

(-5)(0.79) + (0.21)(x) = 0
x = $18.81

Therefore, the break-even point comes when you will make $18.81 profit after hitting your boat on the river.

$3.55 plus his bet of $5 is in the pot for you to win..

$18.81 - $3.55 - $5.00 = $10.26.

Therefore, if you think he will pay you an average of $10.26 on the river when the board pairs, then you need to call on the turn. Otherwise, good fold.

If you want to think of it another way, he needs to call a 3/4 pot bet on the river (when the board pairs) 100% of the time.

Or... he needs to call 100% pot bet on the river (when the board pairs) 3/4 of the itme

Or lastly... he needs to call all-in on the river 36% (10.26/28.45 that he has left) of the time.

(Do you see where I'm going with these calculations?)

All-in-all, I think it's a good fold.. because these percentages seem a little high... but this sort of thinking helps in these situations.

If anyone needs me to explain these calculations in more detail, I certainly can.

[/ QUOTE ]

is this sort of thing useful to post, or no?

[TheWorstPlayer]

Very useful. Nice post. I almost never bet less than full pot on the flop any more and I think it is better now.

[midget23]

of course its useful considering those are the kinds of numbers we are running through our heads on each decision we make in a hand.

[Raydain]

Bad fold IMO...

First of all, you have a really strong hand that could be the best right now. But your read tells you that you are behind. If you're 100% sure he has a flush then he would certainly pay you off if you complete a boat.

How can you just disregard implied odds in this hand. At this low of stakes I can't picture anyone folding a two-card flush.

$5 more to call with around an $8 pot with $17 behind villian. Call and push on a fullhouse and check-fold on a blank. I would assume that he won't have a flush a percentage of the time making the play profitable.

It's a tough decision if you're 100% sure he has a flush. Otherwise it's pretty easy.

I hate this fold.
First of all, at these stakes I think you are giving the small blind way too much credit. I could see him having two pair, a set of fives, nines, or even fours, the ace of diamonds, or else a flush or straight.
Given this range it is an easy call. You have position, you may have him beat already, and even if you do not you have 10 outs to win.
Implied odds makes this an easy call and a terrible fold. Call the turn raise and push if you fill up on the river.

[MINETZ]

[ QUOTE ]
Bad fold IMO...

First of all, you have a really strong hand that could be the best right now. But your read tells you that you are behind. If you're 100% sure he has a flush then he would certainly pay you off if you complete a boat.

How can you just disregard implied odds in this hand. At this low of stakes I can't picture anyone folding a two-card flush.



[/ QUOTE ]
I fully agree witth these two statements.
Noah

[swedeD]

My standard minimum bet at NL25 is $1. Why bet less?? A lot of the players at NL25 don't care about pot odds (at least not from my experience). If the have a draw, top pair or whatever, and want to call a 0.40 dollar bet, they will call $1. You have to start building a nice pot.

[DoomSlice]

Multi-way, I'll often find myself overbetting the pot because it will get me HU with the draw and inflate the pot for a turn overbet.

[ QUOTE ]

is this sort of thing useful to post, or no?

[/ QUOTE ]

Great post, thank you.