My new $11 strategy

[CaptSensible]

I think that's an old strategy

[Newt_Buggs]

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the swings have been killing me lately when someone calls my jacks with A8 and busts me.

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If you're going bust with JJ against A8 in the early rounds and he didn't make trip 8s you're obviously doing something very wrong.

[lastchance]

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the swings have been killing me lately when someone calls my jacks with A8 and busts me.

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If you're going bust with JJ against A8 in the early rounds and he didn't make trip 8s you're obviously doing something very wrong.

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What he said.

[Shillx]

I'm probably the tightest player in this forum (not just STT but overall), but this is insane dude.

I only play pockets and AK early on and that is it. It is too tight, but I don't do SNGs for the "poker" value. Your range is much too tight IMO. Small pairs are the best way to double up early on, and you really need to take advantage of these spots.

Brad

[chopstick]

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Ok
So after getting smacked around in these things playing QJs, KQ, A10, etc Ive decided not to play any hands until level 4 unless its AA-QQ or AK. Im gonna try 100 like this and see where it gets me.

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That seems marginal, and here is why.

http://www.pokertips.org/strategy/probabilities.php

Probability of being dealt a pocket pair 5.9%
Probability of hitting a three of a kind or quads at the flop when you hold a pocket pair 11.8%

Since you are playing the top 3 pockets, we'll say that the % of time you hit a pocket pair and fold is (10/13)* 5.9 = 4.54%

This means that (4.54% * 11.8%)= .54% of the time (1 in 185 hands), you will fold a 22-JJ pocket pair that would have made you a set or quads on the flop. 185 hands is 18.5 levels. That means for every ~six of the 11$s you play, you'll give up 1 opportunity in the first 3 levels to flop a low set. That's 16.6% of the SnGs you play.


Now for some assumptions.

Assuming that if you flop a set you tend to double up (this is the 11$s, after all), and that if you can double up by level 4, you are almost certainly ITM, your strategy gives up a 16.6% "guarantee" of ITM. The benefit to you is that you only spend 10+15+15+30+20+40= 130 chips, leaving you with 670 chips most of the time. If you play your pockets during this time, which means 4.54% of 30 hands, or 1.36/30 hands at an average cost of 21.6 chips, or an additional 29.47 chips per 30 hands. Actually it costs less than this, because sometimes your pockets will appear in the big or small blind and cost you less, but I'm getting tired of doing math.

So the question is, what is better. To almost always have 670 chips at the start of level 4, or.. to have 639 chips at the start of level 4 ~83% of the time and ~1470 chips at the start of level 4 the other ~17% of the time?

I'd go with the latter.


Please tear apart my numbers and logic now.

[1C5]

Agree w/ Brad.

agree with brad also

in first couple of levels i will only play pockets and ak, and sometimes i will throw in suited connectors if the table is calling for it and i have the chips

by you saying 'i am playing this insanely tight' you are basically confirming that you can't play postflop in the first few levels.

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When someone alot less lazy than me comes along, they will direct you to the 10+1 strategy guide.

--LoO

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this'll get you there eventually.
sng faq

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Small PP's are my new best friend --- Almost never used to play them, but now I have seen the light. When I hit any set, I double up almost every time someone hits top pair at the $11's.

B.

[USGrant]

Read more strategy essays on NL post-flop play. It seems like a post-flop issue rather than a PF one.