this is a push, right? - Page 2

psyduck · #11 08-10-2005, 04:17 AM

post link to nottom's thread?

billyjex · #12 08-10-2005, 05:03 AM

you say he is 56/44 to the raiser's range. but I think he's better.. you really think villian is raising 6.5xbb w/ AA or KK? I might even drop QQ from the list of possible hands.

Nottom · #13 08-10-2005, 05:05 AM

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post link to nottom's thread?

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I was thinking the same thing.

Shillx · #14 08-10-2005, 05:20 AM

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you say he is 56/44 to the raiser's range. but I think he's better.. you really think villian is raising 6.5xbb w/ AA or KK? I might even drop QQ from the list of possible hands.

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So what? Even if he is 66/34 against his range, he still can't play. He needs to be about 70/30 if the villian will never fold.

Brad

lastchance · #15 08-10-2005, 05:27 AM

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you say he is 56/44 to the raiser's range. but I think he's better.. you really think villian is raising 6.5xbb w/ AA or KK? I might even drop QQ from the list of possible hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

So what? Even if he is 66/34 against his range, he still can't play. He needs to be about 70/30 if the villian will never fold.

Brad

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I think 66/34 is good enough, considering you will have some FE here.

Isura · #16 08-10-2005, 05:51 AM

Why are we only discussing the case when villain never folds? He's folding a large of hands that makes this donk overbet preflop. He probably didn't want to push since his hand isn't very good, and you hero almost has him covered.

Shillx · #17 08-10-2005, 06:23 AM

Okay. Villian has to raise about 40% of his hands to make us a 2:1 favorite if he always calls. Let's say that he will fold 20% of the time that we push.

EVafter posting = 29.4%
EVvillian folds = 35.1%
Win if called = 64.4%
EVcall = 26.4%

EV push = 28.2%

If he folds 30%...

Win if called = 63.1%
EVcall = 25.9%

EVpush = 28.7%

If he folds 50%....

Win if called = 58.9%
EVcall = 24.2%

EVpush = 29.7%

So he needs to fold a lot in order to push here. Almost half of the time if he is opening 40% of his hands. If he is opening with less hands (say 25% of his hands), then he has to fold even more in order to push here (and since he will be raising better hands to start with, it isn't going to happen). I really don't like a push in this spot.

Brad