Set vs. Flush Draw...We should both be pumping this pot?

[Harv72b]

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One thing I didn't see either of you mention is that a good portion of the time when you raise the flop you'll still get the opportunity to raise the turn. It's not like the free card play works 100% of the time, especially with an A-high board. But generally I agree that this is a good flop raise.

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Excellent point as usual, chief.

Of course, the flip side of this is that it's also possible you get a bet and a raise to you after a blank turn.

I'm sorry, but the basic problem in this hand is that you cannot get rid of the flush draw--it is going to be correct for him to call your bets no matter what you do. So with a flop that is so unlikely to generate a checkfest on a blank turn, it only makes sense to get big bets out of him (and the others) instead of small ones.

[Shillx]

Not raising in this spot with a set is terrible. Not raising in this spot with something like AK [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is understandable, but certainly not with a set. You want to start building a pot now to encourage people to keep drawing on 4th street. I have to go now, but just calling here is a novice play.

Brad

[Harv72b]

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Just for general reference, the opponent's relative edge over the field is not large at all. It's something around 22.5% 5-ways. Barely an edge. When you add in the fact that your relative position is perfect for a raise here to trap the entire field and the fact that a flush draw will not lead on the turn into this field (and consequently, if he checks the turn, you will be facing at least one person with two bets cold), you really need to be raising here.

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If we're assuming the SB is the one with the flush draw, at least one of the people you'll be facing with two cold is the flush draw. I doubt he'll fold. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[Harv72b]

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Not raising in this spot with a set is terrible. Not raising in this spot with something like AK [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is understandable, but certainly not with a set. You want to start building a pot now to encourage people to keep drawing on 4th street. I have to go now, but just calling here is a novice play.


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Okay, okay....if it's unanimous, I must be wrong. I just don't see how I am. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[Entity]

Harv,

The biggest problem I have with your analysis -- and this is a very big problem -- is that you seem to assume that all the callers have something worth calling with on the turn.

The flop is in general the street where you get the loosest calls. I just don't think you're going to get to get enough loose callers on a turn, especially when the action causes you to face multiple people with two bets.

Rob

[damaniac]

To summarize/clarify:

We're mostly talking about how to get the most money into the pot with the best of it, and not really on hand protection so much.

I don't think anyone is going to be "right" here if this is the argument, because so much centers on unknowns.

When we raise the flop:
1) How often does SB 3-bet? What do the limpers do?
2) Do all the limpers call another bet?
3) Does this raise ever bloat the pot enough to get them to call the turn after pairing or something, drawing dead, while they wouldn't if the pot were smaller?
4) Do we get donkbet again after raising this flop? From where?
5) Do people have hands they'll call multiple flop bets with, but not a single turn bet?
6) how often is someone willing to go to war with top pair (or two pair, or what have you) on the flop, trapping everyone? Does waiting for the turn knock everyone else out, or trap them further in this instance?

When we don't raise the flop...
1) How often do we get bet into on the turn? (Harv tried this, I think he's right, most of the time) Where does it come from?
2) How many people are calling 1 turn bet? 2 cold? 1, then 1 more?

Etc. Even on average these things are tough to figure out, what we can ascertain is that we have a large equity edge on the flop, the flush draw is making money (barely), but so are we, and if we can trap multiple people on the turn for multiple bets MOST of the time, I could make a good case for waiting. But I do know I can reasonably expect to get 3 or 4 sb's in now, and pick up a few more on the turn. Eh, I guess we have to agree to disagree on how likely each action is to get more money into the pot.

[flair1239]

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Not raising in this spot with a set is terrible. Not raising in this spot with something like AK [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is understandable, but certainly not with a set. You want to start building a pot now to encourage people to keep drawing on 4th street. I have to go now, but just calling here is a novice play.


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Okay, okay....if it's unanimous, I must be wrong. I just don't see how I am. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

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Harv,

I see where you are coming from and like how your thinking.

But I think you need to clarify some of the conditions that you are looking for.

I play many sets just as you are describing. But I have certain things both flop texture and table texture wise.

I think that is the disconnect here and is the reason why people are not following. Throw out an example hand with reads where you do this. I am anxious to see if we are looking at the same factors.

[JerseyTom]

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Harv,

The biggest problem I have with your analysis -- and this is a very big problem -- is that you seem to assume that all the callers have something worth calling with on the turn.

The flop is in general the street where you get the loosest calls. I just don't think you're going to get to get enough loose callers on a turn, especially when the action causes you to face multiple people with two bets.

Rob

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Exactly. At most, 2 of them are calling with something that should really concern you (and is "correct" for them to call with). The rest are drawing slim/dead or just peeling because they think it's fun to give away money.

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If this is true, then you might as well just advocate blindly raising the flop every single time you hit a set.


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Not to be snide, but I can think of about a million worse plays than this (neither time nor space will allow me to enumerate).



Tom

[Harv72b]

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Harv,

The biggest problem I have with your analysis -- and this is a very big problem -- is that you seem to assume that all the callers have something worth calling with on the turn.

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To be fair, in the example I gave there was a bet and two callers on the turn, Hero raised, and only two players called the raise. I think that's a fair assessment on most SS tables...either the bettor or the caller has the flush draw, the other one has an ace that he's taking to showdown come hell or high water, and the third player who called/folded was dreaming that his pocket sevens were good. If we are indeed in a scenario such as this, and there is indeed a bet into Hero on the turn (I still contend this happens nearly always after this flop), then the actions of these players are unlikely to change whether it's 1 or two BBs on the turn--the pocket sevens will not call two cold, so you potentially lose 1 BB there depending on exact positioning. But the ace probably is...very few SS players are capable of laying down top pair, especially on a drawy board like this. I'm sure we can agree about that point.

If the flop had been something more like T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], then I could definitely see the wisdom in raising the flop immediately because there are just too many cards that could come on the turn and prevent someone from betting into Hero.

I understand the thinking in wanting to raise the flop immediately--this is virtually guaranteed to get an extra 2 BBs into the pot when Hero is a big favorite. I'm just saying that it's very likely Hero will get at least that by raising the turn.

Now, again to be fair, Hero is probably losing bets in cases where he calls the flop, the turn brings a spade which prevents Hero from raising, and the board pairs on the river. He is also probably missing bets when it turns out that nobody is holding two spades, and the action on the flop was 1 player leading with an ace or two pair and a bunch of donks calling with assorted backdoor draws and underpairs. Is this the case often enough to make an immediate raise more profitable? This appears to be the crux of y'alls argument, and I will at least agree that this is possible.

[Harv72b]

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4) Do we get donkbet again after raising this flop? From where?

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I will admit that this point in particular I failed to fully appreciate. If SB was indeed betting an ace & just calls Hero's flop raise, it's very possible that he donks the turn anyway. Then again, from what I've seen lately, it's very possible that he donks the turn with a flush draw, too.