Re: Waiting for the Blinds before Sitting Out
This is an interesting question that ties in w/ some calculations I made. Back about 7 mo. ago when I was just putting together a hold 'em strategy, I took a look at the EV charts at PokerRoom. I calculated all the hands with a positive EV for purposes of refining my starting hands requirements. While doing that, I also multiplied each EV by its probability to determine the net EV of one orbit (assuming you are an average player post flop and that the games you play are similar in difficulty to those or PokerRoom).
The stats are as follows:
1. Irrespective of position, your average EV for a hand not in the blinds is + 0.0595 BB/hand. This comes out to + $0.12 for a hand not in the blinds.
2. Playing optimally in the blinds results in a net loss: -$0.32 (-0.162BB) in the little blind and -$0.41 (-0.204BB) in the big blind.
Therefore, the AVERAGE loss due to sitting out a non-blind hand is as stated above. Realize that you will lose more than average from a late position, and less from early position. However, assuming that you are only playing +EV hands out of the blinds, you lose some money in every non-blind hand.
Finally, although it is a bit off topic, note that a player with average skills can turn a profit simply by playing only +EV hands: +0.0595*8-0.204-0.162= +0.11 BB/orbit or about $1.21 /hr given the $1/2 example. Even more could be made by altering play according to position, but that is too much work for me and besides I now have a grasp for which hands to play and further data gathering is unnecesary.
Hope this helps.
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08-06-2005, 10:05 PM
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