when the flush draw gets there... - Page 2

Matt R. · #11 08-05-2005, 01:06 PM

Not often enough for me to call. I don't see AJ slowplaying that flop, or raising AFTER the 3rd heart hits on the turn. It's possible, but I still fold.

junkmail3 · #12 08-05-2005, 01:18 PM

Wow, the advice in the second half of this post is terrible.

I don't think you can fold this hand. Ever. Period(.)

I would be inclined to push the turn raise. (that's about a pot raise, right?)

If he has the flush already, you have 10 outs. You're likly going to have your money in the pot by the end of the hand anyway. Why not take a stab at taking it down now, or giving 2:1 to the flush draw?

I've seen plenty of 4 flushes play this hand this way at the 55s (and call all in on the turn).

ldavidjm · #13 08-05-2005, 01:20 PM

I'm all for playing aggressively, but I fold this river as well. AJ check calling a flop like that?? And then turning up the heat when a flush card comes? And there really aren't many likely raggedy two pairs he could have because he is limping UTG so that's almost certainly out as well. In addition, its much easier to come back from 530 chips where you've still got some time, to desperation with only 230.

gumpzilla · #14 08-05-2005, 01:23 PM

I think I push the turn when I'm raised. I'm unlikely to fold the river to an unknown at these buyins, and if he's beating me he's going to bet again, while I don't think he's going to fire another barrel if checked to on the river (EDIT: when he's behind). If I push the turn, I'm defending myself against big naked hearts and I'll not infrequently get looked up by an AJ that thinks I'm trying to bluff the flush. Since you have boat outs as well, I like a turn push. As is, call the river.

Matt R. · #15 08-05-2005, 01:29 PM

You really think he'd call the flop bet with a backdoor flush draw? Then raise someone that has bet into him twice already with 4 to a flush? Then bet only HALF the pot on the river -- a bet that clearly wants to be called -- with a busted flush draw?

pooh74 · #16 08-05-2005, 01:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You really think he'd call the flop bet with a backdoor flush draw? Then raise someone that has bet into him twice already with 4 to a flush? Then bet only HALF the pot on the river -- a bet that clearly wants to be called -- with a busted flush draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes...among other possibilities.

junkmail3 · #17 08-05-2005, 01:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You really think he'd call the flop bet with a backdoor flush draw? Then raise someone that has bet into him twice already with 4 to a flush? Then bet only HALF the pot on the river -- a bet that clearly wants to be called -- with a busted flush draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes...among other possibilities.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed.

One had you could think about:
A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Matt R. · #18 08-05-2005, 01:38 PM

I'd need a read that he's a terrible player then, for me to be willing to make a call that would cripple me. Because even a bad player *usually* has the flush here (I think we can at least agree on that?). Also, I still might fold because a player this bad will give me his chips later anytime I'm in a pot with him -- and I won't have to be hoping he doesn't have the flush.

schwza · #19 08-05-2005, 01:39 PM

i folded. here was my rationale...

that would be a very strange play for AJ to smooth call the flop with one to act on an uber draw-heavy board. the rest of the hand is pretty consistent with AJ though.

it would be a very normal way to play A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]x [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. there are more nut flush hands out there than AJ's (not to mention non-nut flushes, 99, etc), and few hands besides AJ that i beat that would ever take this line.

in the end, i used the rough rule of thumb that i often rely on:

- how surprised would i be if he had a flush? not surprised at all.

- how surprised would i be if i won this hand by calling? pretty surprised.

that last bit is obviously not an argument - just wanted to explain the thought process.

as for pushing the turn, i think gump makes some good points. i'm pretty unhappy to be folding the river, so committing to losing all my chips against a flush is not a disaster. against KxJx or AxJx i want to get the chips in on the turn. a heart river will make villain check behind. a blank river will leave me in a tough spot, where i'm likely going to miss value or fold a winner. against either hand with a heart i'd love to be all-in on the turn.

so i think pushing the turn is probably best, but once i get to the river, i think a fold is correct, or at least close.

Matt R. · #20 08-05-2005, 01:42 PM

This seems like the only logical possible hand he could have here that you beat. But I still think he raises the flop with top pair (at least if he's going to raise the turn). Either he's a donk and his range is wider, or every other possible holding he has includes 2 hearts.