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#11
08-05-2005, 08:40 AM
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Re: Big draw on flop becomes bigger draw on turn
[ QUOTE ]
I was going to post something along those lines, actually. But I think that line is for when you could have the best hand already, and don't want to get knocked off it, and can improve to the nuts, kind of thing. That's not the case here, so it's not so important, IMO. [/ QUOTE ] So does that mean you WOULD bet? 
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#12
08-05-2005, 08:44 AM
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Re: Big draw on flop becomes bigger draw on turn
With both players checking the turn, I don't think there's much value on the river if either of your draws hit.
I'd probably bet T300 and hope to take it down now.
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#13
08-05-2005, 08:44 AM
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Re: Big draw on flop becomes bigger draw on turn
I dunno, I think it's close between the two. Would depend how weak-tight or, conversely, tricky I thought my opponents were. Also, if they are observant and know I wouldn't call on the flop just with overcards, then they'd realise the K hasn't hit me.
Basically if I think they would lay down if I represented the K, then I don't see any harm in betting.
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#14
08-05-2005, 08:50 AM
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Re: Big draw on flop becomes bigger draw on turn
I actually like checking behind on the turn here and taking the free card. You've got so many outs that it would suck to get C/R'd here.
Plus, I don't know how plausible it is that you have a K here and alot of opponents are likely to stick with a heart draw unless you bet big. So I check behind and take the free card.
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#15
08-05-2005, 09:34 AM
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Re: Big draw on flop becomes bigger draw on turn
Al P-
[ QUOTE ] I'd probably bet T300 and hope to take it down now. [/ QUOTE ] 45suited- [ QUOTE ] I actually like checking behind on the turn here and taking the free card. You've got so many outs that it would suck to get C/R'd here. [/ QUOTE ] These are the two arguments that makes this hand a tough one for me. If I got C/Red here, I would have approximate pot odds to call the C/R. The thing is, by checking behind I give myself almost no chance to bluff the river, since I showed weakness on the turn. And those 450 chips would be nice in my stack, and if I get CALLED I have outs. So I guess it comes down to how often I think I get bluff c/red, then, no?
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#16
08-05-2005, 09:47 AM
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Re: Big draw on flop becomes bigger draw on turn
I think that your assessment is correct. It also helps that you are the bigstack at the table too, I suppose.
On the other hand, when I'm the bigstack, I also take the approach that that 450 chip pot doesn't mean as much to me as it does to them, so sometimes I'm less likely to want to gamble away my chip lead. Especially on draw with only one card to come. So I think that your assessment regarding the trickiness of your opponents is dead on. If they are passive, I'll bet here. Otherwise, I'd check behind.
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#17
08-05-2005, 10:26 AM
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Re: Big draw on flop becomes bigger draw on turn
[ QUOTE ]
So I guess it comes down to how often I think I get bluff c/red, then, no? [/ QUOTE ] the frequency you're going to get c/r'ed by a made hand is also v. important. if you get c/r'ed by K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]x [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T9, KQ, TT, etc, that's horrible because you're missing out on a chance to bet the river if you hit and get away for free if you don't (calling or folding to the c/r is much worse than that line). i don't like the bet b/c i think the odds are too high you're going to get called. i don't think a c/r is all that likely, especially not a bluff c/r. but a heart draw or 9x is likely to call you here. is your plan to push the river if you miss your draw? if so, i like the plan of betting the turn a little better. also, others in this thread have said: - you can't check here and bluff the river because you've shown weakness and will get called - checking here is bad b/c you can't get any value if you hit. i tend to believe the first. i think you're getting called usually if you bet here, but if you check behind you're going to get looked up on the river.
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#18
08-05-2005, 10:31 AM
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Re: Big draw on flop becomes bigger draw on turn
[ QUOTE ]
but a heart draw or 9x is likely to call you here. [/ QUOTE ] This is probably true. [ QUOTE ] is your plan to push the river if you miss your draw? [/ QUOTE ] No, plan is to check or fold river if I miss, even if I hit a pair. [ QUOTE ] - checking here is bad b/c you can't get any value if you hit. [/ QUOTE ] I really think this is not true. However, if an A hits it's possible a King may fold fearing a pair of aces? Hm.
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#19
08-05-2005, 10:42 AM
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Re: Big draw on flop becomes bigger draw on turn
[ QUOTE ]
- checking here is bad b/c you can't get any value if you hit. [/ QUOTE ] Ummm... how about the pot? There are reasons not to check (you might win the pot by betting), but I don't think that this is one of them. Sometimes the best way to win the pot is to take the free card. This pot has value NOW, even if you can't get another chip if you hit.
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#20
08-05-2005, 10:54 AM
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Re: Big draw on flop becomes bigger draw on turn
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] - checking here is bad b/c you can't get any value if you hit. [/ QUOTE ] Ummm... how about the pot? There are reasons not to check (you might win the pot by betting), but I don't think that this is one of them. Sometimes the best way to win the pot is to take the free card. This pot has value NOW, even if you can't get another chip if you hit. [/ QUOTE ] i'm not sure if you guys are implying i agree with the quote above. i don't. i wrote: [ QUOTE ] also, others in this thread have said: - you can't check here and bluff the river because you've shown weakness and will get called - checking here is bad b/c you can't get any value if you hit. i tend to believe the first. i think you're getting called usually if you bet here, but if you check behind you're going to get looked up on the river. [/ QUOTE ]
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