Check Big overpair in large multiway pot?

[davelin]

You can't always protect your hands. So the flip side of the coin is betting for value.

[niko421]

Checking here can't make sense... bet for value.. then stop adn go the turn... betting for value may give you a free card on the turn... and then a check/call option on the river. Bet for information on the flop... if you get raised you may be correct to call all the way down...

By protecting your hand you are giving yourself the option to save 1/2 bet on the turn..

[MikeTexas]

[ QUOTE ]
Check out this thread from the archives:

http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/...t=all&vc=1

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the link Raza! Thats a very intersting thread. The commentary by Ed Miller seems to contradict what other people on this forum are saying, however.

Everyone else here says that I should have bet the flop instead of giving my opponents "infinite odds", but Ed Miller's strategy is identical to the one I was suggesting.

So who's right? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[silkyslim]

bet for value!

[Ed Miller]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for the link Raza! Thats a very intersting thread. The commentary by Ed Miller seems to contradict what other people on this forum are saying, however.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't really agree with my commentary anymore. In general, I dislike checking through on the flop with a hand that is "likely to be best." The reason is that it'll be checked right to you again on the turn too often.

When you play possum in late position with a "likely to be best" hand, you are making a trade. You trade the money you would have made collecting flop bets for an increased chance someone will (mistakenly) bet into you on the turn. In order for the trade to be worthwhile, the value of getting that mistaken turn bet times the percentage of the time it will happen has to exceed what you lose in flop equity.

In other words:

Betting the flop has value in all the calls you'll get from worse hands. The stronger your hand, the more value those calls have because the more equity you have in the pot.

Getting bet into on the turn also has value, because it allows you to raise both to protect your hand and to get extra money in the pot from a weaker hand. But you can't be guaranteed someone will bet into you on the turn. So you have to take into account the probability that will happen when you weigh the value of getting that bet.

That's where checking behind vs. just calling a bet comes into play. It seems equivalent, but it's not. The reason is that when someone else bets the flop, it's relatively likely that they'll bet the turn also if no one raises. Whereas, if everyone checks the flop, someone else may decide to bet the turn, but it's not as likely.

So basically, sometimes you should just call a flop bet waiting for the turn. But far less often should you check behind if checked to in the same situation.

[McGahee]

When I see a LP player raise a turn bet after checking thru the flop, I cannot automuck fast enough.

[johnc]

The heart of the example in SSH is to forgo a small flop edge (pair of tens - vulnerable to draws and overcards) to push an even bigger edge on the turn when a blank falls. You don't have a small edge w/KK or AA, you edge is very big (you suspect) so you've got to push it now on the flop. With little or no chance over cards will spoil your chances, the mulitway nature of this hand makes it almost mandatory someones on a draw. Sure there's no guaranteed way to protect but why miss opportunities and give someone infinite odds to suck out on you?

[MikeTexas]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't really agree with my commentary anymore. In general, I dislike checking through on the flop with a hand that is "likely to be best." The reason is that it'll be checked right to you again on the turn too often.

When you play possum in late position with a "likely to be best" hand, you are making a trade. You trade the money you would have made collecting flop bets for an increased chance someone will (mistakenly) bet into you on the turn. In order for the trade to be worthwhile, the value of getting that mistaken turn bet times the percentage of the time it will happen has to exceed what you lose in flop equity.

In other words:

Betting the flop has value in all the calls you'll get from worse hands. The stronger your hand, the more value those calls have because the more equity you have in the pot.

Getting bet into on the turn also has value, because it allows you to raise both to protect your hand and to get extra money in the pot from a weaker hand. But you can't be guaranteed someone will bet into you on the turn. So you have to take into account the probability that will happen when you weigh the value of getting that bet.

That's where checking behind vs. just calling a bet comes into play. It seems equivalent, but it's not. The reason is that when someone else bets the flop, it's relatively likely that they'll bet the turn also if no one raises. Whereas, if everyone checks the flop, someone else may decide to bet the turn, but it's not as likely.

So basically, sometimes you should just call a flop bet waiting for the turn. But far less often should you check behind if checked to in the same situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Mr. Miller, thank you so much for adding your insight! I was really confused on what to do in this situation.

And a big thank you to all the other 2+2 posters who were kind enough to contribute their thoughts and opinions!

-Mike