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#11
07-31-2005, 10:21 PM
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Re: 10/25 UB flush draw
[ QUOTE ]
what's wrong with bet/threebet? fim [/ QUOTE ] if hes up against AK hes a 2 to 1 dog. not enough odds to make this move profitable imo. someone correct me if im wrong.. 
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#12
07-31-2005, 10:23 PM
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Re: 10/25 UB flush draw
[ QUOTE ]
someone correct me if im wrong.. [/ QUOTE ] http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1117560 pokenum -h ad 8d - ac kc -- as 7d 5d Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing As 7d 5d cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV Ad 8d 471 47.58 507 51.21 12 1.21 0.482 Ac Kc 507 51.21 471 47.58 12 1.21 0.518 I fear you are gonna get berated quite badly in this thread.
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#14
07-31-2005, 10:24 PM
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Re: 10/25 UB flush draw
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] what's wrong with bet/threebet? fim [/ QUOTE ] if hes up against AK hes a 2 to 1 dog. not enough odds to make this move profitable imo. someone correct me if im wrong.. [/ QUOTE ] You're way off. Hero is going to win 47% of the time against AK. Rob
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#15
07-31-2005, 10:25 PM
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Re: 10/25 UB flush draw
the whole point of the 3 bet here is to move hands like AQ and AK out of the pot.
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#17
07-31-2005, 10:26 PM
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Re: 10/25 UB flush draw
This is tough because there is a lot of acceptable lines here. I also see several of them leading to very tricky turn situations. But maybe that can't be avoided? The fact is, it's very difficult to play hands like this out of position. Here are a few of the lines:
A. Bet $250 on the flop and move allin if somebody raises. The positive here is you have some folding equity against AK and if that hand calls you are 50%. The negative is of course running into a set. In that case, it's 2-1 against. B. Check call - Check call - check fold (assuming you don't improve further)...On the flop, you may extract value from a worse hand that would not call if you bet. The negative is you might get blown off your hand on the river by a worse hand. C. Bet $250 on the flop and checkraise allin on the turn if your called. I'm not sure what the pot size will be but you will have to judge whether you have the folding equity to make this profitable. The more I think about it i really don't like B....Bet the flop and use your judgement from there. Be aggressive and try to maximize your folding equity is the best i can come up with. But i think this is a great example because it's so typical yet difficult to play well.
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#18
07-31-2005, 10:27 PM
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Re: 10/25 UB flush draw
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] what's wrong with bet/threebet? fim [/ QUOTE ] if hes up against AK hes a 2 to 1 dog. not enough odds to make this move profitable imo. someone correct me if im wrong.. [/ QUOTE ] You're way off. Hero is going to win 47% of the time against AK. Rob [/ QUOTE ] odd, when i ran it came up 66/33. must of messed up somewhere.
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#19
07-31-2005, 10:27 PM
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Re: 10/25 UB flush draw
[ QUOTE ]
if hes up against AK hes a 2 to 1 dog. not enough odds to make this move profitable imo. [/ QUOTE ] If he's up against AK, then he has his 9 flush outs + 3 8 outs assuming a non-diamond K doesn't come. That just a hair less than even money. Also, the bet - 3 bet all in can look like a set protecting against the flush, so you *may* have some folding equity, especially against TPTK, although I wouldn't speak for players in a game in which I've never played. Regards, Woodguy
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#20
07-31-2005, 10:28 PM
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Re: 10/25 UB flush draw
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] what's wrong with bet/threebet? fim [/ QUOTE ] if hes up against AK hes a 2 to 1 dog. not enough odds to make this move profitable imo. someone correct me if im wrong.. [/ QUOTE ] he is just a little worse than 50/50. your thinking of if he just had a flush draw, he has 3 8 outs as well as the diamonds.
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