July - My poker month from hell

[PITTM]

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hey guys.... i see all these stats for showdown stats and all that and i'm just wondering where you guys got them ( pokertracker, etc.).. I have pokerspy right now and its not as in depth as some of the things you guys mention.. any help on everything you use would be greatly appreciated. thank you!

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if you think theyre pokertracker stats youre correct, note that he said "pt stats" before writing them. i recommend pt highly.

rj

[naphand]

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I've never had a downward trend in my graph over 10,000 hands.

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Consider yourself very lucky. Downward trends can last 20K hands, and it is normal to see several of up to 200 BB (possibly more) in a 100K sample.

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this month, it has fallen two full percentage points

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You are running bad. Don't let that stop you analysiing your play though, that always helps (though it is entirely typical we only do this when running bad).

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What a way to end the first 100k hands of my career

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There is no "end" until you stop playing. 100K "landmark" means nothing statistically speaking. Downswings are not tidy nor convenient; they happen and are part of your overall graph. Just because this happens to have arrived as you reach 100K hands is also completely meaningless unless you have made some strategic changes to your game.

Just this month I was having great results (winning at 3.78 BB/100) and on the LAST day of play I dropped $700 to end up on 1.85 BB/100. Still a good month and I played well (though not perfectly).

Stop worrying and play through this, it happens to everyone. You have been lucky in not having to face such a run sooner, death and taxes etc.

[Harv72b]

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Total Hands: 12,400 (June) 14,000 (July)
VP$IP: 15.95 (June) 13.88 (July)
Won $ WSF%: 30.24 (June) 27.35 (July)
BB/100: 2.65 (June) -1.63 (July)
Went to SD: 26.41 (June) 25.59 (July)
Won $ at SD: 58.91 (June) 55.57 (July)
PF Raise: 8.45 (June) 7.63 (July)

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It's not just that you're playing too tight preflop, it's that you're folding way too often postflop. Your stats are indicative of a classic "weak/tight" game which, while likely to produce a positive win rate in Party SS games, leaves a lot of money on the table. Your postflop AF will likewise be higher than normal, because you are folding in a lot of situations where you should probably be calling.

If you haven't done so already, check out CallMeIshmael's Stats Post, which should serve as a very valuable tool in identifying specific leaks in your game. You will see what I mean regarding folding too often postflop.

I lost my database so I can't give you particulars, but I had an absolutely horrifying month of May (my computer crashing in the middle of it was just icing on the cake). Bad months do happen.

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Although it may be suggested that I have tilted through the month, I do not believe this is the case. My VP$IP for the past three months has been 16%; however, this month, it has fallen two full percentage points, which is a pretty drastic increase (i.e. I have not grown LAGgy). I attribute this to cold-cards (is this possible over a run of 10,000 hands?), not getting much from my winners, and losing a majority of my coin flips.

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Tilting is not only about going the LAG route--you can also tilt in the opposite direction, where you start playing too tightly & folding too easily postflop because you begin to expect to lose hands. I fall into this funk sometimes after getting sucked out on repeatedly or taking a string of tough beats (example: last night on a 3/6 6max table, I flopped a set 5 times in a 2-hour session, and lost 4 of those hands). I actually think that this "reverse tilt" can be even more damaging than the traditional form, because even mediocre opponents will pick up on the fact that you're running bad & folding a lot and use that to push you off of good hands.

[SmileyEH]

I'd say that even the majority of the statistics in CMI's post would be weak/tight in my mind.

-SmileyEH