50/100 Deep Stack Weird River

[cwl]

how full of it does he think you are? his hand looks a bit like a K that doesnt believe you but you have most of the Ks. if he has something like QJ do you think he will call much of anything, if he even got this far that is. there is a nice missed flush draw for him to talk himself into believing you have if you have been bullying him a bit but i would guess thats not really the dynamic.

one thing i would consider doing here is makeing a ridiculously obnoxious small bet, like 800 or so. the good things that can come out of this are:
- if he has been hanging on with a real weak made hand this could be all you can get.
- if he has nothing, like a missed flush draw your play is so stupid it might inspire him to do something goofy.
- if he somehow has a better hand than it seems like he should, like a super goofy set or weird 2 pair that might have called a larger bet, it might convince him to put in a value raise even when he was only planning to call.
- if he made a straight his most likely check raise becomes a more controlled amount so i can call and not give him all my money.

of course if i do this and he check raises allin i feel like about the stupidest person that ever existed but i dont remember icebreaker being prone to big overbets, either as bluffs or with good hands, so hopefully this wont happen.

if you think he sees you as being LAG enough that you stand a reasonable chance of getting called by something like a J then making a normal close to pot size bet seems a lot better.

his hand just doesnt make a lot of sense to me so im not all that sure what i would do.

[Yeti]

I would bet about 4k. If he cr'ed allin, I would feel sick, mumble, call, lose, and start weeping.

I really don't think he cr's here unless you're beat, if he had a set he would obviously have defined his hand before the river. Of course, I don't know the opponent. If he cr's you here it 'must' be either QT or Tc8c.

But I really doubt I'm able to fold, unless he's a complete rock.

[RollaJ]

If he has hit his staight, do you really think he would check the river and let you check behind with AK, KQ, or AA? I think you should bet here, and $3-4k seems about right.

You also said he doesnt tend to give loose action, this minimizes the chance he hit the straight, and in my mind increase the likelyhood of a flopped 2 pair or under set or perhaps even AK. Granted, in general people let you know where they are, but not always.

I think when he called that turn bet he most likely had a made hand...... I call a C/R

[FatalError]

I don't see how he played QT this way personally, you are very deep but he paid the pot on the turn, it's possible he had a super draw though with QcTc

[ggbman]

Essentially, there are two hands in the deck that he could have here that beat you, Tc-8c, or Qc-Tc. He's not calling a pot sized bet with only an open ended on the turn if he is as solid on the turn. This leaves a lot of possibilities, if he had a made hand, he certainly played it weirdly. I would bet like 2500 here, try to get a call out of AK, QK, a weirdly played KJ, or any other made hand.

[ML4L]

Hey Bruiser,

[ QUOTE ]
i have a hard time putting him on a hand that will call a decent sized value bet

[/ QUOTE ]

Something is screwy about this.

Is in the habit of calling a pot bet on the turn, only to fold to a river bet?

Are you so predictable that if you put in money on the river, you have the near-nuts? Along those lines, what range of hands can he put you on when you pot the turn?

Unless he is aggro with his non-draw hands to the point that you know that he has some sort of draw when he check-calls two streets, I don't see how you can say that he can't possibly have a hand that calls a river bet...

Mike

[esbesb]

Well, if that's REALLY how you feel, why not check?

I am not saying that's how you should feel, but you were the one in the hand and you've seen how the guy plays, and maybe you got a read, and you might be right.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
with what plan diablo?

[/ QUOTE ]

Fold to a cr all-in.

[coltrane]

I think there's only one question you need to ask yourself: how likely is he to bluff-raise me in this spot? (based on all factors).....

if the answer to that question is on the low side, your line becomes crystal clear: you value bet a good amount that doesn't tie you to the pot if he check-raises you.....

if the answer ranges towards the high side of likelyhood, then you have a few options I think.....one is to make a really small value under-bet, two is to just make a commitment decision and pot it with the intention of getting it all in there, three is to check......

[psyduck]

I don't get it? What beats hero besides an unlikely straight?!

(just asking here, because I'd like to hear your thought process)