Unlucky or outplayed? (long rambling post....sorry)

[Bartholow]

Also, he REALLY only raises with bluffs and monsters? That just seems hard to believe. Even if that was true at one point, he may change that pattern.

[jester710]

I'm sorry I didn't post any hand histories; I'm new to this and not really sure how to use the converter or any of that stuff. I'll see if I can dig up any good examples of what I'm talking about.

I can't say with 100% certainty that he only raises with monsters or bluffs; it's just the way it seems. More likely than not, though, if he's got an big card showing and another one in the hole, he'll wait to check-raise on 5th rather than come out firing.

Thanks for the heads-up on maybe playing too passive. That's one of the main things I was worried about, but it just seemed like whenever I pushed back, I just ended up losing a bigger pot. In retrospect, that appears to be a tactical error.

[grapes]

Several thoughts:

Generally, stud is a higher variance game than others, and heads-up/shorthanded is higher variance than a full table. Playing heads-up stud, you have to expect some big swings; bigger than probably any other game you've played. It can be a maddening game. Of course, capping it on third street with small edges isn't going to help reduce the luck factor any.

More information about his play would be helpful to adjust your strategy. Does he play most hands to the end? Is he always as aggressive as you say, or just in those particular hands?
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So when I have a split pair of 8s and he raises with an ace showing, I'm pretty confident I have the best hand. I usually reraise and he keeps capping until I lose my nerve and check-call, only to find out that he made his pair of aces on 7th.


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You almost certainly should not be reraising and capping with a hand like this early, particularly against a loose aggressive player. First of all, your edge isn't that big. Against 3 overcards, you're less than a 60/40 favorite. You are probably right about being ahead, but he still could have aces, or a pocket pair. I doubt he always slowplays his big hands. Second, putting a lot of bets in early makes his play the rest of the hand correct. When the pot is capped on third, it's usually totally correct to play to the end, unless your opponent's board gets really scary. You turn it into a crapshoot.

Third, his hand plays better than yours. He has a fairly good idea what you have when you cap it with an 8 showing, but you have no idea what he has.

The play I like better here is just to call his raise on third and see what happens. If he makes an open pair or catches something like the K/Q suited to his ace, you can fold. If you make two hidden pair and he doesn't catch scary cards, now you can raise. If you pair your door card, you are more likely to get called.

In stud you're rarely a big favorite or dog early in the hand. Even something like AAK against 678 is barely over 2 to 1. (86)8 against A(XX) is 60/40. If he's going to play to the end anyway, keep the pot small early, so you can fold at a minimum loss when the boards come bad and raise when you improve. In between, when you're not really sure where you're at and he just keeps betting regardless, you should be calling down (and just calling) more often than normal.

Of course, I'm not saying never raise on third. You'd still raise with your big hands, overpairs, sometimes reraise with that 88 even. Just don't keep raising when the hands are close. If you raise on third and he reraises, call, and then check/call on 4th unless you have good reason to believe you're a significant favorite.

Also, play tighter. This depends somewhat on the structure, but the fact that he's playing a lot of hands doesn't mean you should play more too. Hands like (AQ)4 when he raises with a jack can look tempting, and you are probably ahead here, but you have no idea where you're at and it's going to cost you a lot to find out.

[jester710]

Thanks for the reply and the advice. I am aware that a split pair vs. overcards situation is little more than a coinflip, and I hardly ever push those situations hard. I think the times I did against him were as much tilt as anything.

After playing with him some more and watching him play others, I think I can safely conclude that he's just on a hot streak. However, that doesn't mean I was playing well against him, and I appreciate you pointing out the poor decisions I made. Hopefully after I plug those leaks and tighten up even more than before, I can finally get my money back.

[jon_1van]

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he'll wait to check-raise on 5th rather than come out firing.


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How many times do you have to watch him check-raise to realize his check may be the start of a check-raise?

If he isn't betting his good hands much you should be able to take him down.

[jester710]

He only had to check-raise me a couple of times before I learned to back off if I didn't improve. Even I'm not that dumb.

However, my analysis of his play includes hands I saw him in against other players, many of whom did not see the check-raise coming.