What would you do?

[KingOtter]

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I get a little annoyed when posters don't read the OP very carefully. But not paying attention to the number of players at the table counts as not reading very carefully. I'm such a hypocrite. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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I'm pretty easy-going mostly, so I won't hold it against you. I like your posts.

KO

[KingOtter]

To make a long story short (my bed is calling me, and my beer is empty) ... I raised.

I thought it was a good play at the time. Maybe it was the beer, but my reasoning was:

MP2 will have no odds to call anything except the goods. Not that there really was anything on the board, but it would likely drive him out. He's got no reason to believe I don't have a paired jack with a decent kicker.

SB was, well, SB. Only paying a half a bet to limp in he could have just about anything, and since he folds so much, give him a reason to fold.

And he did... they all did, and I took the massive, whopping 5 SB pot.

If I had been 3-bet my Mr. Passive (or MP for that matter), I would have called and folded the turn UI.

Also, if BB had called, I don't think I would have raised. I would have been more concerned about a Jack.

I seem to have pretty good success with plays like this. Sure AA and KK are still my main money makers, but plays like this keep me even with blinds and such.

KO

[fflyer]

Grunch:-
If he is as passive as you say, I fold this with the pot being so small.

[Fantam]

Normally I would be inclined to raise SB's flop bet and go from there, because he could be betting an OESD or something like bottom or middle pair with an overcard.

However if you consider that SB would not bet the flop without top pair, then I would fold as the pot is small and you only have 2 outs to improve.

[fflyer]

If you made this play planning to call a three bet, then I think it is very much minus EV. The odds against spiking a 7 on the turn make the call unprofitable.
Against a player known to try to steal with 2nd pair or worse the raise is OK on the flop, but with your read on your opponent I think you got very lucky here. Very few players at this level will fold top pair on this sort of action regardless of how poor the kicker is, or at least they don't seem to do it against me very often.
Anyway, you can't argue with success I suppose.

[KingOtter]

[ QUOTE ]
If you made this play planning to call a three bet, then I think it is very much minus EV. The odds against spiking a 7 on the turn make the call unprofitable.
Against a player known to try to steal with 2nd pair or worse the raise is OK on the flop, but with your read on your opponent I think you got very lucky here. Very few players at this level will fold top pair on this sort of action regardless of how poor the kicker is, or at least they don't seem to do it against me very often.
Anyway, you can't argue with success I suppose.

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Sure you can.

Just because you drag a pot doesn't mean it is the right thing to do. That's results-oriented, and that's why I wanted to post the hand the way I did.

I agree with everyone saying the pot was too small to do this.

KO

[teajay]

If you say you've seen him show down only the goods and he is passive, I would be the one finding the fold button with these 7s.

If you had some sort of back door draw it's possible I'd peel one, but being heads up I still may not as you won't have the padding from others. Thoughts?

* Edit: Crap, he's not heads up, I forgot about MP2. But the chance of MP2 raising makes me want to peel less anyway. Same effect.

[Aaron W.]

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SB was, well, SB. Only paying a half a bet to limp in he could have just about anything, and since he folds so much, give him a reason to fold.

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There's a difference between folding and bet-folding. I pay close attention to bet-folds. Are they bet-folding scary boards? Innocuous ones? In small pots? Into preflop raisers? By the time you see about 3 or 4 bet-folds, you'll have a decent sense of what he's doing. (And if a bet-folder ever 3-bets when you raise, you must trust that he really has it.)

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If I had been 3-bet my Mr. Passive (or MP for that matter), I would have called and folded the turn UI.

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This is a bad move. If you're going to raise this one, you've got to fold to the 3-bet or not fold at all (if it's heads up). When you get 3-bet, you need to decide the probability you're ahead, and see if it's worth calling down. Chasing a set here is very -EV.

[eviljeff]

this is a raise or fold situation, but given your read on sb it's a pretty easy fold.

[KingOtter]

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this is a raise or fold situation, but given your read on sb it's a pretty easy fold.

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People keep saying this... and they're keying on the passivity of my opponent.

But he's only seen 2 showdowns in 43 hands. Nothing is telling me he's committed to showdown on this yet. A 3-bet would, and true, I said I would call it, but in retrospect I should be able to fold to that 3-bet.

KO