A hand sweated by Joe Tall

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
Turn raise = good. Lesser PPs, 1 pair hands, and draws will call. An 8 will often go for a checkraise.

River raise = bad. No better hands will fold, since JJ-KK is nearly impossible. Many worse hands that would have called a turn raise will fold because of the Ace on the river. A bluff/whiffed draw will fold.

Surf

[/ QUOTE ]

perfect.

Krishan

[Joe Tall]

River raise = bad. No better hands will fold, since JJ-KK is nearly impossible. Many worse hands that would have called a turn raise will fold because of the Ace on the river. A bluff/whiffed draw will fold.

Surf,

What do you put UTG on?

Peace,
Joe Tall

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

On the river, you still do not want an over call from a hand like A5,6,7 which as this hand played out, sure seemed so from UTG.


[/ QUOTE ]

I have no clue why you think UTG has an ace, but if he does, he won't fold it, so if you are right then your river raise is doubly horrific because you knew you were beat, should have known you couldn't win the pot, and then threw two bets away when one would have done.

We play these games precisely because people cannot and do not make these folds.

The fact that MP has led at this river just makes it all the worse. I'm pretty confident he has an 8 or an A.

Guy.

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]

I have no clue why you think UTG has an ace, but if he does, he won't fold it, so if you are right then your river raise is doubly horrific because you knew you were beat, should have known you couldn't win the pot, and then threw two bets away when one would have done.


[/ QUOTE ]

I didnt' play this hand. I gave the player of it the other options. As I said, "I'd fold or raise here as I can't imagine wanting an overcall."

he fact that MP has led at this river just makes it all the worse. I'm pretty confident he has an 8 or an A.

So you are folding the river?

[sublime]

#1 i need to raise more of these turns, i raise some, but not enough.

#2 im glad i dont make river raises like this [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

getting 9-1 in a 3-way pot, 2nd pair on a 3 straight, paired board with a new aggressor betting into a preflop raiser when an ace falls. folding is the correct play imo, with calling being OK if ur addicted to showdowns. raising seems awful.

[Joe Tall]

getting 9-1 in a 3-way pot, 2nd pair on a 3 straight, paired board with a new aggressor betting into a preflop raiser when an ace falls. folding is the correct play imo

I starting to lean toward a fold but I'm not calling.

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]


I didnt' play this hand. I gave the player of it the other options. As I said, "I'd fold or raise here as I can't imagine wanting an overcall."

he fact that MP has led at this river just makes it all the worse. I'm pretty confident he has an 8 or an A.

So you are folding the river?


[/ QUOTE ]

I realise you didn't play the hand. Forgive my sloppy language.

I probably don't fold the river, big-ish pot and all, but I don't expect that the times I lose are because UTG called behind me with a hand he would have folded had I raised.

People just do not fold pairs in these games. They certainly don't fold top pair that gets made on the river. And they really don't fold three pair.

Guy.

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]

River raise = bad. No better hands will fold, since JJ-KK is nearly impossible. Many worse hands that would have called a turn raise will fold because of the Ace on the river. A bluff/whiffed draw will fold.

Surf,

What do you put UTG on?

Peace,
Joe Tall

[/ QUOTE ]

I would put his most likely holdings as any 5 or 6, most likely 57 or 67...possibly 77. Unlikely he's on overs, but still possible. A lower PP is relatively unlikely, but another possibility. It is also possible that he is on a very oddly played 8 and is going for a river c/r. This is very unlikely.

The only hands he could hold that are ahead of us are specifically A5,A6, or A7(barring the very unlikely A9 or AT that didn't raise preflop and donkbet the turn for no reason). IMHO he will very rarely fold any of these hands, if ever. He just improved on the river and will see a showdown.

Many of the hands we beat (mid pairs) may overcall. None of the bluffs/missed draws will call (or raise) so it doesn't matter what we do in that regard.

From my point of view, we will be hard pressed to ever fold a better hand. When he folds we will have missed out on a bet from an overcall.

Surf

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't expect that the times I lose are because UTG called behind me with a hand he would have folded had I raised.

People just do not fold pairs in these games. They certainly don't fold top pair that gets made on the river. And they really don't fold three pair.

Guy.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree 100%.

MPs river bet is the biggest threat, UTG checking the river means he most likely does not have an ace, and we'd like him to overcall his crap pair to pad our equity. I'd call the river expecting MP to be bluffing at what appears to be a pot that everyone has given up on with a FD or missed 7/pair combo more than 1 in 9 or 10 times.

Surf

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
getting 9-1 in a 3-way pot, 2nd pair on a 3 straight, paired board with a new aggressor betting into a preflop raiser when an ace falls. folding is the correct play imo

I starting to lean toward a fold but I'm not calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey Joe,

Of all of them, I think raising is the worst, by far.

Two problems with raising: you're rarely folding an ace when UTG has one. Certainly not 20% of the time. Second: UTG doesn't usually check an Ace on this river. I just don't think you're getting the parlay necessary to make this play here. This is a situation where, if anything, I'd prefer to get overcalls because hands like 65 and 76 seem to make terrible crying overcalls in these pots all day at 5/10, and I can't imagine $3/6 being any different.

I also think calling the turn is pretty bad.

Rob