Checkraised on the flop with overcards

[BWebb]

Here are some quick calculations, tell me if I'm off. I made the following assumptions:

10% drawing dead =0 outs
10% reverse dominated=3 outs
10% flush draw for opponent=3 outs (4 outs on turn but have to dodge heart on river)
70% drawing completely live=6 outs

(.1)(0)+(.1)(3)+(.1)(3)+(.7)(6)=3.6 outs

Round that to 3.75 and you are about a 11.5:1 dog, pot is laying you 8:1. Even if my number are off and you do have 4.5 outs as you assume, you are getting 9.5:1 on your call. The pot is small, so fold. If the pot was bigger, I'd be more inclined to call.

[W. Deranged]

11.5 to 1 dog.

You'll pick up two more big bets on each of the next two streets, and maybe more if you hit.

That gets you to 12 to 1.

Which makes a call good.

Hitting and losing will be expensive and this takes that number down a little bit, but not that much.

So even given your estimates I think a call is okay.

And... on yeah.... your numbers don't add up. If hero has 70% chance of having all his outs live then .7 * 6 = 4.2 outs at least. (Your numbers should give 4.8 I think).

I don't mean to be too confrontational on this one; I do think it's close. But I think you have to be thinking very, very pessimistically to think that hero does not have enough equity to continue here.

[baronzeus]

This is live, so you can't fold. People remember that you folded to the check/raise on the flop and will take shots at you.

A good line is to flat call this check/raise every time, then mix up your game on the turn. Make him put in 2 bets when he's taking a shot at you, and either fold the turn UI or raise the turn improved.

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]
11.5 to 1 dog.

You'll pick up two more big bets on each of the next two streets, and maybe more if you hit.

That gets you to 12 to 1.

[/ QUOTE ]

too optimistic IMHO

villain's most likely hand is a split pair or nines. When you hit your K or J on the turn, villain will have a five out redraw. in that case 10% of the time you hit you lose.

[ QUOTE ]

Redraws should be consider but note that that only takes away maybe .2 of an out, because that only kicks into effect when all of the following are true: we hit a heart K or J on the turn; another heart hits the river; villain has a heart.


[/ QUOTE ]

you are forgetting that the times you are outdrawn (not just a flush but two pair and trips), you have reverse implied odds and will end up paying a lot more than 8-1 for the ride. I think you lost this fact in your conversion to .2 outs, however that was done.


I would fold this

[BWebb]

Yeah, went the wrong way on my calculations. 4.8 is correct. As I said before, the fact that this is a small pot makes it a fold for me. It is close.

[The_Good_Dr]

Everyone's input and different outlooks are appreciated. On this hand, I thought for a minute and folded. I felt that I was not getting the right price to draw to my 6 outs if they were even live.