Re: Is the flop the right time to play for overcalls?
It was purely for example purposes. I think our hero is going to win at least 5% of the time, so a call is correct. If that number is 2%, a call would be bad, but my point is simply that even when Hero has almost no chance to win the cost cannot be that high.
An interesting thing to note here is how much 1% affects the expectation. Since the pot is so big, your expectation is literally moving like a quarter of a big bet for every % point you think you are ahead.
My original argument wasn't that clear, I'll grant. The point is that your chance of being ahead is so small it is hard to give it with any accuracy, and folding may be giving up a lot.
Notice that if hero wins only 8% of the time folding will cost him 1 BB in expectation.
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07-28-2005, 05:22 PM
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