I'm confused about this one...

[dmk]

i think the article was meant for SNGs. additionally, although 1 play may be +EV, there can be other plays that have a higher EV.

[nightlyraver]

There is no part of this article uniquely adapted for SnG's. However, I do agree that one may choose to pass on this +EV play for a more +EV play as I stated in my OP. The fact remains that I would still seriously consider open-pushing expecting to just win the blinds since I'm also setting the BB up for later. Eventually he may call in a spot like this w/ a hand like ATs.

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]
i think the article was meant for SNGs. additionally, although 1 play may be +EV, there can be other plays that have a higher EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

I love to open push, but the only way that could even be considered here is if you have a maniac in the BB who will defend with anything.

Also, pay more attention to your stack relative to the blinds more so than relative to your table. You still are comfortable in chips.

[danger_mouse]

Thanks for the link, Nightly. I read it, and while pushing AK with 15 BB is +EV, so is pushing AA. I don't think I'd do either. Now with that said, I've actually pushed with AK with more BB than 15, but that was a special circumstance against a player I knew was itching to call me with all kinds of cards.

[nightlyraver]

I'm not saying that you should always push, but recognize that it is a +EV move. The reason this is so against most reasonable players probably is not because you get called by a wide range of hands, it's because you don't get called so often. With 15BB's you can't afford to lose a pot, so scooping the blinds and antes is not a bad alternative to playing a flop. You might also get called by a hand like AQ (this actually occured in a WPT event and it was Scotty Nguyen who did the calling). You also may get called by a pocket pair, but a coin flip to double up when you're down to 15BB's and it's relatively late in a tourney is not so bad.

[A_PLUS]

Pushing AK here is just weak scared poker

[sirtemple]

If I follow this article correctly: I should push as SB anytime it's folded to me if I think the BB is tight(will only call w/ top 25% of hands).

I certainly don't do this now, and I am skepticle about this play. Is this a standard 2+2 line?

if you push everytime you will eventually go broke even if the BB ONLY calls with top 25%. So you still need to change it up as any pattern is bad in a tourny.

[WillMagic]

Bet bigger on the flop.

Seriously. I'm all in favor of 2/3 of the pot continuation bets...but this is a 3-flush board. If you had a jack you would bet big to protect your hand. Your half-pot bet stinks of weakness AND gives clubs the odds to call AND gives a flush draw the impression that it has fold equity by coming over the top. A pot-sized bet does none of these things.

Bet 750 on the flop. If you get check-raised all-in you have an easy fold, even getting 4-1 odds.

Will

[nightlyraver]

Although I generally respect you and your posts, I'm at a loss with this one.

Pushing in this spot is clearly a +EV play. The value of this play is calculated by multiplying the chances you will be called by the chances you win when called by the size of your stack (since in our case Hero has the smaller stack).

Let's say that Villian only calls with a decent pocket pair, AK and maybe AQ or AJ. We know that we're a small dog to any pair, a big dog to AA or KK and a big favorite to AQ or AJ. OK, so let's guesstimate that we're about 45% to win when called.

Next, we need to guesstimate how often we are called. Assuming we have not been leaning on the BB constantly and that the BB is a typical player, he's probably only calling about 20% of the time given the range mentioned above.

So let's put this all together...

This push is worth = (45% chance to win when called)*(20% chance to be called)*(15BB's sitting infront of Hero)

(.45)(.20)(15) = 1.35BB's
Note that if there are antes this number jumps to about 2.35BB's making the play even more appealing.

OK, so back to what you said, I don't see how this is a weak play at all. I'm not saying that I'm always making this play with 15BB's, but I am saying that you should only pass on the 1.35BB's (not including antes) if you feel that you can outplay the BB on the flop, making a 3xBB raise more profitable in the long run. All the time I see players call 3xBB raises from the BB and fold to most flop bets - clearly the 3xBB raise is more profitable in that spot. Against a BB that is not a weak player, the 3xBB raise becomes less appealing, especially when you absolutely cannot lose the pot in question.

Like I said, these reasons should be used to decide weather or not you push, IMO. I just don't see how this is weak, scared poker. Please explain...