Does anyone NOT push this?

[maddog2030]

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Cos ICM/EV are not The Answer.

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What are your other concerns in this hand that could possibly outweigh a clear ICM push?

[ChoicestHops]

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What are your other concerns in this hand that could possibly outweigh a clear ICM push?

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If you have pushed the last 5 hands, wouldn't you think ICM would change here? The opponents calling standards would drastically change.

Sometimes I raise 3x the BB here, other times I dont.. mainly read dependent. If I havent pushed in awhile, then I think this is definitely EV+

[microbet]

I push.

If I'm going to skip a push because I've pushed too many times in a row, I'll find worse cards to do that with.

[The Don]

I don't credit any players at the $22s or $33s with the ability to sense weakness and resteal here. I also dont credit them with the ability to fold a hand like A9 or 66. Raising to 500 is the clear option for me here.

[ChuckNorris]

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If you have pushed the last 5 hands, wouldn't you think ICM would change here? The opponents calling standards would drastically change.

[/ QUOTE ]

To you and all the other sissypants: it doesn't matter what the opponents calling range is. It's always +EV in whatever EV there is.

[maddog2030]

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If you have pushed the last 5 hands, wouldn't you think ICM would change here? The opponents calling standards would drastically change.

[/ QUOTE ]

Extraordinary circumstances aren't given so it's assumed this is a normal situation with the average $33 players calling range. Even so, as someone already mentioned, the strength of the hero's cards and the stack sizes probably make this a profitable push no matter what the villian does.

[ QUOTE ]
Sometimes I raise 3x the BB here, other times I dont.. mainly read dependent. If I havent pushed in awhile, then I think this is definitely EV+

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There's no reason to raise only 3xBB here unless you think that will give you the appearance of more strength than a push. But again we're not given anything else information wise and this is player dependent.

[ChoicestHops]

I didnt realize this would be heads up.

Yes, push!

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Cos ICM/EV are not The Answer.

[/ QUOTE ]

What are your other concerns in this hand that could possibly outweigh a clear ICM push?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think ICM overestimates your equity after getting called & losing in this spot.

[ilya]

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I also dont credit them with the ability to fold a hand like A9 or 66.

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Oh yeah, I'd say a common calling range here is, like, 44+, A6+, KT+, QJ...irrespective of how they see you...players at these levels are basically insane.

[maddog2030]

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I think ICM overestimates your equity after getting called & losing in this spot.

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Assuming your opponent is calling with the top 20% of hands, you would have to assume your equity after you lose is reduced by 95% of the default ICM lose-value for this to be breakeven, and even more to be a losing play... meaning ICM says you will have 11.4% equity if you lose, but you'd have to drop to 0.57% equity when losing for this play to actually be breakeven, assuming the other ICM values are correct.

ICM maybe be off somewhat here, but I don't think its that off.