is this overplaying AK? by a pro no less

[JC_Saves]

ChiliKing: calls 30, 4 folds, JohnnyBax: raises 120 to 150, 3 folds, ChiliKing: calls 120
*** FLOP *** [7c 9c 5c] (POT:345)
ChiliKing: checks, JohnnyBax: bets 150, ChiliKing: raises 150 to 300, JohnnyBax: calls 150
*** TURN *** [7c 9c 5c] [6d] (POT=945)
ChiliKing: bets 330, JohnnyBax: calls 330
*** RIVER *** [7c 9c 5c 6d] [Td] (Pot 1605)
ChiliKing: checks, JohnnyBax: bets 560 and is all-in, ChiliKing: calls 560

Thank you. I did miss the flush draw on the flop.

But having said that, can you really say that he is gettin 5.3 to 1 on the flop? I know that is what it looks like straight up if you do the math but it really is more like 645\300 slightly better than 2 to 1 since he put in 150 of this money to begin with.

Somehow it doesn't seem logical for me to drive the pot up by betting and then have someone come over the top of me, and then I get to ignore my previous bet this hand like it didn't happen and say wow look at the great odds I am getting.

yes, he is getting 3.8 to 1 on the turn which is below what you really should need if you follow the math and probabilities with one card to come to draw out.

The way this hand as been played up to the turn, how can you possibly believe that pairing either of your cards is a solid out to win?

Yes you have second best flush draw, to someone that could already have the flush on the flop. Someone could have a made straight which puts you solidly behind relying only on the flush as your only outs.

Isn't there a saying don't make a bet that can cost you money? His river bet can only lose him money after the way it has been played and the board that is there. Did his opponent play like this board scared him? I think not. He played like he welcomed it all the way, and then he checked it, hoping that Johnny would fire off the last of his chips, because he knew if he bet there was a great chance that Johnny would fold it.

[Nicholasp27]

once he's put his money into the pot, it's a 'sunk cost'...u can't lower his odds of a subsequent bet because of that..when he bets that 150, it's to get all of the money in the pot, including what he's already invested...so it's total pot divided by 150, not just his opp's contribution

[fnord_too]

Well, I probably check behind on the flop there to try to keep this pot small. As others have said, you are really pricing him in. I can certainly see why he would try to bluff on the river after your timid betting, but I'm not sure I would.

Honestly, I don't think either of you played this hand particularly well. Normally, a small check raise will get out AK from a good player on the flop, but with a monotone flop you have to seriously consider the possibility that he has a flush draw to go along with over cards if in fact he does not have an overpair (or maybe even a set).

Preflop I really hate limp calling with jacks, and this hand really illustrates why (even though you ended up stacking him on this hand). You are playing a very marginal, vulnerable hand OOP over multiple streets. Villain is in good shape to stack YOU here, you got lucky with this hand in that:
1. Your read was correct
2. He did not play back at you on the flop and put you to the test (what do you do if he pushes to your mini c/r)
3. He did not hit one of his 15 outs
4. He bluffed on the end.

If your stacks were deeper, I have less problem with limp calling with jacks, but that line is really playing them for set value and hoping to stack villain when you hit. Stacks just are not deep enough for that here.

I am not crazy about villain's play, but other than the bluff at the end I think the line is defensible. (The bluff at the end against someone who is decent is just bad IMO, since the most obvious draw missed, check calling is such a standard play against an aggressive opponent).

Villain has two other lines he can take:
1. get to showdown cheaply if he does not make his hand. That is check behind on the flop and call a reasonable turn bet if he misses, play the river accordingly.
2. continue on the flop like he did and reraise you mini raise all in. I like this line a lot, but would probably wuss out if, as villain had, my club was the K and not the A. (By wuss out I mean go with option 1. I don't really like the continuation bet here if I don't feel comfortable pushing a non pot commiting raise and folding to a pot commiting one. That's my real beef with how villain played this hand, but I can see how he got sucked along since he was getting odds to call. Problem is, he does not know if all his outs are clean and extracting money from you if he hits and is in fact ahead could prove problematic.)

[UMTerp]

I'm folding the turn if I'm JohnnyBax - there's too good a chance he's drawing ridiculously thin. That 330 may be an OK call pot odds wise (and it certainly was in this case in hindsight), but there's a huge difference between playing a 900 stack and a 550 stack here.

Interesting hand.