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#11
07-26-2005, 03:51 PM
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Re: Where\'s the fold, Where\'s the Raise?
[ QUOTE ]
Forgive me but I think that this line is horrible. [/ QUOTE ] you are forgiven and I agree [ QUOTE ] 1. If villain has no A he folds or 3bets (then what?). 0 bets you win. 2. If he has no A and if he holds the Kc, maybe KK or KQ, he will call and CF the river. 1 bet you win 3. If he has an A (AK, AQs) he might 3 bet. Are you folding to the 3 bet? Be consistant with number 1, above. This line appears to me to expose hero to being pushed off a winning hand and/or paying an extra bet to lose. Edit: I think you played the hand well. [/ QUOTE ] I think the fear of being 3bet on the turn is misplaced. I think villain most likely has AK (8 ways) or TT-AA (6,6,3,6,1 ways). I think villain is only 3betting with AK[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 ways) and AA (1 way), so only about 10% of the time you're losing an extra bet (perhaps he would 3bet KK[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], but then again perhaps he would not 3bet AA, so I think it may cancel). I think the reason my initial line was horrible is because of the bets you miss when he folds TT-KK without firing again. oh and we are definitely not folding to a 3 bet with that line. 
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#12
07-26-2005, 04:00 PM
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Re: Where\'s the fold, Where\'s the Raise?
the decision between raising the turn and calling the turn are closer than most people think because a lot of the time, I believe we can get an extra bet or 2 against a lot of hands the villain may have such as KcKx, JcJx, TcTx. Even against KK or QQ w/no clubs, villains w/these types of stats will call down a lot. AA is pretty unlikely, the only hand I am worried about is AK, moreso if the K is a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
I don't like the free showdown line either, if villain just calls our turn raise and checks the river, i am confindent are hand is strong enough at showdown to make a bet profitable.
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#13
07-26-2005, 04:07 PM
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Re: Where\'s the fold, Where\'s the Raise?
[ QUOTE ]
1. If villain has no A he folds or 3bets (then what?). 0 bets you win. [/ QUOTE ] Why are we automatically dimissing the possibily that the villain will call down with a worse hand. [ QUOTE ] 2. If he has no A and if he holds the Kc, maybe KK or KQ, he will call and CF the river. 1 bet you win [/ QUOTE ] If I knew villain had KK w/the K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], I am raising this turn every single time. He will also call the river w/KK a good number of times unimproved at the river. Also, if he happens to have KcQx or some other unlikely hand, raising the turn nets us 2 bets while just calling the turn nets us 1 bet since he is folding the river (all this assuming a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] doesn't hit the river. [ QUOTE ] 3. If he has an A (AK, AQs) he might 3 bet. Are you folding to the 3 bet? Be consistant with number 1, above. [/ QUOTE ] No we're not folding to the 3-bet, and I don't think we get 3-bet enough times to worry about this possibilty. I think in your analysis you are putting too much emphasis on this hand being a WA/WB situation.
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#14
07-26-2005, 04:11 PM
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Re: Where\'s the fold, Where\'s the Raise?
[ QUOTE ]
the decision between raising the turn and calling the turn are closer than most people think because a lot of the time, I believe we can get an extra bet or 2 against a lot of hands the villain may have such as KcKx, JcJx, TcTx. Even against KK or QQ w/no clubs, villains w/these types of stats will call down a lot. AA is pretty unlikely, the only hand I am worried about is AK, moreso if the K is a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I don't like the free showdown line either, if villain just calls our turn raise and checks the river, i am confindent are hand is strong enough at showdown to make a bet profitable. [/ QUOTE ] Nicky: How do you handle a turn 3 bet? I assume you call down. My gut tells me that you are losing more by scaring away KK-TT coupled with the extra 2 BBs that you lose when Villain had the better hand than when you catch him chasing an inferior flush/trips. Additionally, when a club is rivered, hero, with the 2nd nutsflush would seem to get into more trouble that Villain with the 3rd,4th nutflush.
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#15
07-26-2005, 04:16 PM
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Re: Where\'s the fold, Where\'s the Raise?
[ QUOTE ]
How do you handle a turn 3 bet? I assume you call down. [/ QUOTE ] I would obviously call the turn if 3-bet. If I hit the flush at the river I am calling 1 bet. If a blank falls at the river, I think I'm making a marginal call. Also, read my reply I made to one of your earlier posts.
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#16
07-26-2005, 04:52 PM
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Re: Where\'s the fold, Where\'s the Raise?
From villain's perspective, he has to know that I have a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in my hand. I'm strong enough to raise, but weak enough to call the three-bet pre-flop and call the flop bet. While I may have an A in my hand, I don't know for sure that he doesn't have the other two, so in his position, i'm three-betting any hand that has the K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], regardless if it's K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Xu and he's played like a total maniac.
If I raise the turn, he's got me in the perfect position to make it look like a set of Aces and then clean my clock on a river [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or c/c with u/i AuK;Club: or KuK[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. He also will no more than call my turn raise and then c/f TT-QQ sans club u/i on the river. So, when he’s got KuK[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 ways), I’m going to win 3.1 BB. When he’s got AuK[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 ways), I’m going to lose 3.8BB. When he’s got A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (1 way), I’m going to lose 3BB. When he’s got any other hand that does not have a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (18 ways), assume villain will call the turn raise and c/f the river u/I, getting me 2 BB. Any other hand in his range that does have a club (9 ways) will pay off one BB on the end winning 4 BB. So, the turn raise has a positive EV of a little over 2 BB from the turn to the river. But, the major hole in the analysis above is limiting the river betting one bet. If a club falls on the river and he has the K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], I’m fairly confident that he will be able to make up his two bets against my second nut flush with a river three-bet of my inevitable raise. I’m sure I’ve made a couple of minor errors in the math and I’m also sure that someone will correct me, but it appears that the difference between raising the turn and simply calling down is our ability to stay out of trouble with the second nuts on the river. Any corrections to my analysis?
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#17
07-26-2005, 05:01 PM
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Re: Where\'s the fold, Where\'s the Raise?
[ QUOTE ]
If a club falls on the river and he has the K, I’m fairly confident that he will be able to make up his two bets against my second nut flush with a river three-bet of my inevitable raise. [/ QUOTE ] So then don't raise the river if he bets a 4th [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
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#18
07-26-2005, 05:06 PM
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Re: Where\'s the fold, Where\'s the Raise?
[ QUOTE ]
I’m sure I’ve made a couple of minor errors in the math and I’m also sure that someone will correct me, but it appears that the difference between raising the turn and simply calling down is our ability to stay out of trouble with the second nuts on the river. Any corrections to my analysis? [/ QUOTE ] I don't really think that's it, I would say we are staying out of trouble with the second nuts on the river by getting into trouble with the second nuts on the turn. if he has the AK[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] we are going to see the bet/raise/reraise/call line on either the turn or the river -- i think that aspect is a wash. we do lose one extra bet against AK[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] when we do not hit but this is a very small part of his holding. the detriment of raising is scaring of TT-KK hands that have no clubs the benefit of raising is losing the same against AK non-club when we are behind, and winning an extra bet when we suck out with a Q or club. there are more combos of non-club JJ-KK (9) than non-club AK (6), i think that is the issue.
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#19
07-26-2005, 05:23 PM
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Re: Where\'s the fold, Where\'s the Raise? [RESULTS]
would you bet if checked to with a fourth [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on the river?
I don't think we're going to lose only one bet on average at the river if a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] falls. Some percentage of the time, villain will go for a check-raise when we bet the river for value and in that situation, I don't think we are good 15% of the time even though we do have to pay it off. I've finally come to the conclusion that raising the turn is most probably very marginally +EV since the extra bets you get from hands with the K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] are probably negated by scaring off the non-[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] hands as jba said. Anyway, here are the results: Absolute Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls. Flop: (7.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls. Turn: (4.75 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls. River: (6.75 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls. Final Pot: 8.75 BB Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF"> BB has Kh Kc (one pair, kings). Hero has Ah Qc (one pair, aces). Outcome: Hero wins 8.75 BB. </font>
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#20
07-26-2005, 05:32 PM
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Re: Where\'s the fold, Where\'s the Raise? [RESULTS]
[ QUOTE ]
would you bet if checked to with a fourth [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on the river? [/ QUOTE ] yes [ QUOTE ] I don't think we're going to lose only one bet on average at the river if a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] falls. Some percentage of the time, villain will go for a check-raise when we bet the river for value and in that situation, I don't think we are good 15% of the time even though we do have to pay it off. [/ QUOTE ] I highly doubt the K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is going to check raise the river when a fourth club falls. whether you raise the turn or not, he is going to bet that river I think. [ QUOTE ] I've finally come to the conclusion that raising the turn is most probably very marginally +EV since the extra bets you get from hands with the K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] are probably negated by scaring off the non-[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] hands as jba said. [/ QUOTE ] his hands with the K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] are the worst in the deck for us, as he is way ahead (we have 2 outs) with almost half of them (AK two ways vs KK three ways) and has 8 outs with the other half. our implied odds are very poor here as we are paying off his AK even unimproved, he beats the hell out of us with a club, and gets off easy when we're ahead of KK and a blank falls. I believe raising the turn is marginally EV- over calling.
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