Where was the fold?

[Azhrarn]

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In reality, I thought I was beaten on the flop and I knew I was beaten when the turn was raised and called. But at that point I had sufficient odds to hit the set. So blah blah.

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If this was the only reason you called the turn raise, you shouldn't have. You didn't have odds to hit your set, because you can't count the Jd as an out here.

As for the rest, I like the pf cap. I don't like the flop 3-bet. Considering the board and the number of callers, it's best to call the flop raise and reeveluate on the turn. Given the turn card, whether to lead out or check-call is opponent specific. Against an overagressive opponent (one who will raise for you with 99, TT, or overcards with a high single diamond), I like the bet.

[callmedonnie]

Great post. That sounds perfect to me. Why don't I get these types of responses?

Just kidding, I hope to post a winner or two tonight.

[molawn2mo]

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As for the rest, I like the pf cap. I don't like the flop 3-bet. Considering the board and the number of callers, it's best to call the flop raise and reeveluate on the turn. Given the turn card, whether to lead out or check-call is opponent specific. Against an overagressive opponent (one who will raise for you with 99, TT, or overcards with a high single diamond), I like the bet.

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Interesting.. so you would give up trying to fold out the LPPs that early. My 3 bet was made with the intention and expectation that Villain would cap and face the LPPs with calling 2 cold. Furthermore, the LPPs ought have realized that they quite likely would be faced with similar choices on the turn and river.

As I said earlier, to the extent that Villain had big PP... this line or any line, for that matter, seemed doomed to failure.

Backing off on the flop 3 bet would seem to be consistant with not capping preflop.

[Azhrarn]

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Interesting.. so you would give up trying to fold out the LPPs that early. My 3 bet was made with the intention and expectation that Villain would cap and face the LPPs with calling 2 cold. Furthermore, the LPPs ought have realized that they quite likely would be faced with similar choices on the turn and river.

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IMO, once players, especially loose players, call two cold, they're not going to fold that round for another two. They want to see the next card. Also, your hand is vulnerable, even if it is the best right now. Your equity can change a lot, up or down, on the turn card.

Then, if you think there's still a decent chance you're ahead on the turn, you can lead again and hope your overagressive opponent does what he does best.

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Backing off on the flop 3 bet would seem to be consistant with not capping preflop.

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Not necessarily. Yes, you have an overpair, but the flop is coordinated, and multiple limpers like their hand enough to call two cold on the flop. You'll often find yourself in a more favorable position on the flop. This is a tricky situation, despite your overpair.

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As I said earlier, to the extent that Villain had big PP... this line or any line, for that matter, seemed doomed to failure.

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Yeah. Sometimes you just get screwed. But even if he had a bigger pair this time, you could easily have still been a favorite against his 3-betting range pre-flop.

[molawn2mo]

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Interesting.. so you would give up trying to fold out the LPPs that early. My 3 bet was made with the intention and expectation that Villain would cap and face the LPPs with calling 2 cold. Furthermore, the LPPs ought have realized that they quite likely would be faced with similar choices on the turn and river.

[/ QUOTE ]

IMO, once players, especially loose players, call two cold, they're not going to fold that round for another two. They want to see the next card. Also, your hand is vulnerable, even if it is the best right now. Your equity can change a lot, up or down, on the turn card.

Then, if you think there's still a decent chance you're ahead on the turn, you can lead again and hope your overagressive opponent does what he does best.

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Backing off on the flop 3 bet would seem to be consistant with not capping preflop.

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Not necessarily. Yes, you have an overpair, but the flop is coordinated, and multiple limpers like their hand enough to call two cold on the flop. You'll often find yourself in a more favorable position on the flop. This is a tricky situation, despite your overpair.

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As I said earlier, to the extent that Villain had big PP... this line or any line, for that matter, seemed doomed to failure.

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Yeah. Sometimes you just get screwed. But even if he had a bigger pair this time, you could easily have still been a favorite against his 3-betting range pre-flop.

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You still seem to advocate not facing the LPPs with calling 2 cold on the flop THE SECOND TIME; this because "once players, especially loose players, call two cold, they're not going to fold that round for another two. They want to see the next card." Yeah, you may be right but that doesn't mean that I ought not try. The hope was to try and convince them that calling 2, AGAIN, was just the beginning of the ram n jam that was to take place on the 2 big bet streets and that maybe they really ought consider bailing now with their JJ, QQ, KK.

And yes, this was a damn tricky situation.

[MrDannimal]

It means you ought not try if, when you make them call 2 cold again and they do, then the pot becomes big enough for them to call a bet or 2 on the turn.

In this case, it's capped 5-way PF (20 SB) and if you don't 3-bet the flop, it would be 15 BB on the turn. If you lead a non-scary card on the turn and villian raises, the other 3 are now getting 9:1 (well, the first guy is. Each called gets +1 to his odds).

Capping the flop (which is what you say you wanted villian to do) means the turn starts at 20BB. When you bet and are raised the first caller is getting 11.5:1.

In the former case, fewer draws can correctly see the river (notably gutshots). Also meaningful is that there are several turn cards that can wreck your hand (Aces, Kings, diamonds). By calling the flop raise and waiting for the turn, if it does favor you, you have a much bigger edge than if it doesn't, and you've saved a BB to find out.

[Azhrarn]

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You still seem to advocate not facing the LPPs with calling 2 cold on the flop THE SECOND TIME; this because "once players, especially loose players, call two cold, they're not going to fold that round for another two. They want to see the next card." Yeah, you may be right but that doesn't mean that I ought not try. The hope was to try and convince them that calling 2, AGAIN, was just the beginning of the ram n jam that was to take place on the 2 big bet streets and that maybe they really ought consider bailing now with their JJ, QQ, KK.

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Yes, the line I'm advocating is calling a flop raise and leading a lot of turn cards. I think this is superior to capping the flop and leading the turn for several reasons:

1. Capping the flop makes it somewhat less likely the aggro villain will raise the turn with a hand you are ahead of. Of course, if he's not aggressive enough to raise the turn with a hand you're ahead of regardless of what you do on the flop, this point is moot.

2. The limpers probably won't fold to two more on the flop. And if they don't, they'll have better odds to call with on the turn.

3. A few cards could come on the turn (aces and threes, for instance) that might make you want to check/fold.

I understand your reasoning for 3-betting. But I think you will achieve your desired benefits very rarely. And I think the value of your hand is still very uncertain.

[ArturiusX]

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In reality, I thought I was beaten on the flop and I knew I was beaten when the turn was raised and called. But at that point I had sufficient odds to hit the set. So blah blah.

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If this was the only reason you called the turn raise, you shouldn't have. You didn't have odds to hit your set, because you can't count the Jd as an out here.

As for the rest, I like the pf cap. I don't like the flop 3-bet. Considering the board and the number of callers, it's best to call the flop raise and reeveluate on the turn. Given the turn card, whether to lead out or check-call is opponent specific. Against an overagressive opponent (one who will raise for you with 99, TT, or overcards with a high single diamond), I like the bet.

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Im not a big fan of this play in a multiway pot.

[molawn2mo]

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Capping the flop (which is what you say you wanted villian to do) means the turn starts at 20BB. When you bet and are raised the first caller is getting 11.5:1.

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Bear with me and don't flame but while the above analysis may be correct (in a very narrow sense), I believe that it is just that, too narrow. Conceptually I believe the analysis should reflect that the LPPs should have "known" that the turn is going to cost them 4BBs (this was the purpose of the pf and flop sequences) so that the best odds that they should calc would be 40:4 (10:1) if all 3 stay in, 36:4 (9:1) if 2 LPPS stay in. Now if 10:1 or 9:1 is sufficient for them to continue on the turn then so be it and I understand the point that you are making. Taken one step further the LPPS quite possibly should have calculated the river capping (you can do the math). This was just to say that 11:5:1 seems simplistic.

To be sure, I am no statistical wiz and tend toward a more intuitive approach in the heat of battle, but my own feeling is that I should actually should have check folded the turn (even if for 1 bet) and even though the turn was a pretty good card (not an over). In the end I tried to make it happen and the opps and cards did not comply.

But check folding the turn appears to be just so effin weak as to make me want to cry. I would have had to leave the table and probbaly would have been added to a couple of buddy lists. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Thats for all the feedback.