Live 2/5 Pair + Straight Flush Draw.

[xorbie]

If you are 100% sure he is pushing a blank turn no matter what, push. If you are 100% sure you have no fold equity but that he might check the turn then call.

[creedofhubris]

Let's begin by saying that if there's any chance your main opponent has a draw as well, you are in dynamite shape with your pair and draw to the nut flush, and that alone is a good reason to push the flop.

But we'll assume he's got a made hand.

Your initial flop call (of the $50 bet) is defensible, because there is some room in the stacks.

Once the reraise comes down:

OK, the only possibly advantage of just calling here would be if you're planning to fold a blank turn, or planning to fold if the board pairs.

Let's see if folding to a blank turn is a good idea.

It will cost you $130 on the turn to win $480. That's 3.7:1. So you need about 10 outs to continue. Do you have ten outs? You have seven clean outs to the nut flush, and some other tainted ones; let's call it four on average (the two pairing the board flush outs are often good, the three straight outs are good when the flush outs aren't, and sometimes in their own right, the three aces are rarely good.). So, calling is slightly +EV.

If you're gonna call any turn, then raising allin can't be a bad move.

Now, let's think about folding to a board pair on the turn. This is the only possible instance where I think you might consider a flop smoothcall and turn fold, since you're now drawing to a one-outer if your opponent has a boat. You have to discount some of your outs because of opponent's possible holding.

So, smooth calling and folding if the board pairs is a conceivable (if weakweakweak) play, but so is raising allin, because of the chance that villain is putting pressure on you with a draw himself.

All in all, I suggest gambling it up in a good loose game, particularly if you can rebuy; it makes you look like one of the guys.

Make sure to smile as you say "I need help!" after raising allin.

[LearnedfromTV]

[ QUOTE ]
If you are 100% sure he is pushing a blank turn no matter what, push. If you are 100% sure you have no fold equity but that he might check the turn then call.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's begin by saying that if there's any chance your main opponent has a draw as well, you are in dynamite shape with your pair and draw to the nut flush, and that alone is a good reason to push the flop.

But we'll assume he's got a made hand.

[/ QUOTE ]


I was about 80%-90% sure he'd push a blank turn but I thought there was some chance he would check, then pay off if I hit the river. He should have put me on a draw and pushed but I figured there was a small chance he would check and that I had nothing to lose by giving him the chance. The board pairing could have scared him if it gave him 3 pair or he had a straight. I was 100% sure he would call a push.

The main reason I was so sure he had a made hand, besides that he had played very straightforward and I was the one with the big draw, was that if he succeeded in pushing me out he still had to beat the allin player, who figured to have some kind of made hand. The same reason i had called the first raise instead of pushing. Didn't think he was tricky enough to try to push out the nut flush draw with a weaker flush draw alone, maybe with 65s.

I figured I was the only one who, if I saw the river, would be able to fold and save money. I figured the pot was too big for him to fold if I hit, but clearly I could fold a pair of threes if I get to see the river free and missed. So I didn't like it but I called, planning to call a push if the turn blanked.

Hit the 6 of spades on the turn. He checked, I checked. Blank river. He checked, I pushed, he called with 43.

Even though I got the money, I don't like the way I played this, especially on the turn. I gave him the free card on the turn to be sure to get paid off, but a fourth spade or boat card either kills my action or loses me the pot. If he has a straight it's not as bad, but there's a lot more ways he can have outs than not.

I know a lot of people have said or would say, if they thought the hand was worth commenting on, autopush but I don't like that it means often putting in money as an underdog without ANY FE. Normally this raise stands a chance of getting called by TPTK or something else it crushes or of folding out a hand the big draw beats but that has odds to call... my read was pretty strong that Villains range of hands was beating me (although it turns out his actual hand wasn't). Since I don't like calling either, I think a push was probably best, but I don't think it's automatic.

Thanks for the comments those who did, any more are welcome.