QQ, hand protection, and being the calling station

[fflyer]

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We're talking about the "Two Overpair Hands" section, correct? In the hand they give, the board is 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. The first example is with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img](raise) and then T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (call) there's a lot more than 1 possible overcard there! (Though I'd still bet out because I suck [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] )

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Having seen this hand discussed before (and not owning SSHE)
was the 1010 example not a situation where there had already been a bet with some callers? Given that the pot equity in that situation is smaller than it will be if no overcard comes on the turn, it is correct to call as nobody who has called so far is going to fold to your raise. Assumng nothing too scary comes on the turn, you raise then as your pot equity is much better. In the present hand, there is a chance that you might fold out some of the opposition with a raise, and you have better equity than if you hold 1010. You shouldn't mind people with inferior hands calling, and if you improve your winning chances by getting some opponents to fold, so much the better. Therefore raising the flop seems to be the best course of action.

[topspin]

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We're talking about the "Two Overpair Hands" section, correct? In the hand they give, the board is 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. The first example is with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img](raise) and then T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (call) there's a lot more than 1 possible overcard there! (Though I'd still bet out because I suck [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] )

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No. We're talking about the KK hand on p.163. With the AA hand the main difference was that no straight draws completing and no overcards are possible on the turn.

[topspin]

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I was going to say the same thing because very few cards can come to beat QQ, but this example is straight out of SSHE, is it not? After a little hemming and hawing I can see the value in waiting to raise the turn (it's just that the real problem is depending on the same player to bet again on the turn).

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See, I debated posting this hand in 2 parts, because I think that seeing the turn action may be influencing people's decisions. But it was late, I wanted to go to sleep soon, and I didn't want to stay up an extra hour or two before posting the interesting part of the hand which I think is the turn.

To you and all those who advocate making a flop raise: there is no question that there is value in a flop raise. However, if we raise this flop, people are getting immediate odds of 1:13 to call. The odds go up even more with every cold-caller. With these odds, it is correct for them to call with virtually anything -- a gutshot, a pair of 8's, a couple of broadways, etc. When the pot is this big, you would really prefer that they fold, but there is no way to accomplish this on the flop.

By calling the flop, assuming a blank falls and we get to raise the turn, we're now offering odds of 1:9, plus people only have 1 card left to outdraw us. It is now a mistake for many hands to call. Furthermore, even if they do call, we're now getting them to put in 2BB when they're a big dog versus 2SB when they're a smaller one. From a value perspective this is compelling also.

The majority of the time that a safe card falls, MP2 is going to bet. (It would be a very poor move for someone with AK or AQ unimproved to bet into this huge pot on the flop; his fold equity is virtually zero.) As I said, the interesting part is what to do once a non-safe card falls on the turn and someone else wakes up. Note that UTG is correct to bet if he really did hit a straight or something similar, since a check-raise here would likely face the field with 2 given that the aggressor from the previous street was in late position.

[POKhER]

Raise the flop, If reraised Call down.

Thats what i'd do, Or fold if i have reason to believe i've been outdrawn(Flush/Straight/Trips?ETC).

[Rev. Good Will]

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I would raise the flop to try to persuade anyone with a weak Ace or King to fold

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we want them to call, do you see why?

(hint: odds of a somebody having an ace and catching on the turn is 1:14 in this situation)

[topspin]

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I would raise the flop to try to persuade anyone with a weak Ace or King to fold

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we want them to call, do you see why?

(hint: odds of a somebody having an ace and catching on the turn is 1:14 in this situation)

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Which they are easily being offered odds for in this hand if we raise the flop. Which by the fundamental theorem means that you would prefer that they fold.

[Rev. Good Will]

last time i checked, they are being offered 1:12.5, so only people in LP with 2 EP callers will be calling profitably

[topspin]

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last time i checked, they are being offered 1:12.5, so only people in LP with 2 EP callers will be calling profitably

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Let's pretend you are BB and you hold a hand which you have somehow figured out is worth 3 outs. It is a bet and a raise in front of you. You can assume with almost 100% certainty that MP2 will call with any two cards when it comes back to him for 1 more bet in a pot that is at least 25SB.

The minimum pot you're going to see on the flop is therefore 26BB. You must put in 2BB. Right now you're seeing odds of 1:13. You need 1:15 to call. If just 1 other person calls, you are getting the immediate odds to call. Additionally, the implied odds on the later streets in this big field are huge. Note that you sometimes get 3-bet after you cold-call, but that chance is offset by the chance that others will cold-call also and the aforementioned implied odds.

If you're folding this hand in these sorts of situations, you're making a big mistake.

[Rev. Good Will]

[BB example]Good point, its nice to know that "mistake" I was making is really paying me off [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

I didn't really factor implied odds into this... although on a paired board I would be hesitant to call 2...though I would't think anybody would play a 6 like that.[/BB example]

Back to having QQ in the CO, I'm still thinking this is a value raise though, even with implied odds we may be offering correct odds to continue, and (to paraphrase ArturiusX) not putting as much $ as we can in a pot in which we win a significant amount of the time is just not my style

[topspin]

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Back to having QQ in the CO, I'm still thinking this is a value raise though, even with implied odds we may be offering correct odds to continue, and (to paraphrase ArturiusX) not putting as much $ as we can in a pot in which we win a significant amount of the time is just not my style

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You can see from my earlier posts in this thread that I agree that raising the flop has value. It's just that I think raising the turn has more value [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

By the way, no one has yet commented on our turn action. Is that because calling down (versus raising) once someone from EP wakes up is standard and boring and not worthy of comment?