Checking my default line - 2 boring hands

[teajay]

Welcome back grunch...

I've been thinking about this hand too and while I like your argument for the stop 'n go, and think it may be best I have something to bring up.

Hero raised preflop and when villain picks up his flush draw with a paired board decides to raise the flop. Villains thoughts could be along the line that hero may only have overcards and this will earn him a free card to draw to his flush.

If this is the case, 3-betting the flop is nice since we're getting the money in while we're still ahead.

Any flaws?

TJ

[topspin]

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Let's say that on the turn, the board is T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. In this case, your line is standard. But, I question that the standard line here is actually best.

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I thought this over, and the answer feels like it depends on two things: (1) how predictable your opponent is, and (2) how aggressive he will be on this flop.

The stop-and-go with the turn bet/fold obviously wins the most and loses the least against a loose-passive villain -- you can fold with 100% confidence if raised on the turn, and you'll win 3BB postflop when ahead or lose 2BB postflop if behind.

If however the villain is aggressive with a variety of hands, then I think the fact that 3-betting and committing to a calldown loses more when you're behind is offset by the fact that you're ahead so much more of the time. Hands that pull this flop raise that will call you down include a pair of 7's, some other pocket pair (especially higher than 7), and perhaps even a flush draw on the semi-bluff. If you widen the hand range to include these hands, then I think the flop 3-bet begins to make more sense.

[GrunchCan]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero raised preflop and when villain picks up his flush draw with a paired board decides to raise the flop. Villains thoughts could be along the line that hero may only have overcards and this will earn him a free card to draw to his flush.

If this is the case, 3-betting the flop is nice since we're getting the money in while we're still ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]

Excellent point, and you're right. If the opponent is rasing with a FD, it is EV for us to keep pushing, since the opponent doesn't have the equity edge they need.

So now I guess we come to the rigorous part. We need to put a default, unknown opponent on a range of hands and see what the odds are.

[GrunchCan]

Yep, I'd agree with you too. And again, I guess we need hand ranges. I'm not in to it right now. Maybe this is a good task for tomorrow...

[teajay]

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[ QUOTE ]
Hero raised preflop and when villain picks up his flush draw with a paired board decides to raise the flop. Villains thoughts could be along the line that hero may only have overcards and this will earn him a free card to draw to his flush.

If this is the case, 3-betting the flop is nice since we're getting the money in while we're still ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]

Excellent point, and you're right. If the opponent is rasing with a FD, it is EV for us to keep pushing, since the opponent doesn't have the equity edge they need.

So now I guess we come to the rigorous part. We need to put a default, unknown opponent on a range of hands and see what the odds are.

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Far too lazy to fire up pokerstove right now, but a range may include...

Hand's we're ahead of:
Pocket pair 2-9
Two suited overcards, either spades or hearts
Hands like 89s (spades or hearts) giving straight flush draws.

Hands we're behind
A7s
77
1010

I'm not overly convinced villain has a pocket pair 2-9, or higher since he didn't raise pf.

I was very specific in the hands we're behind because we can narrow those down more given the way villain has pushed.

TJ

[moot]

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Second hand's fine. Whether or not I check or bet the turn depends on whether I feel I have a "showdown hand" (this is much more likely when I have an unpaired ace in my hand). I also consider fold equity, of course.

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Yeah, with ace-high I'm more likely to bet the turn figuring sometimes I'll be ahead (although this flop is fairly draw free). The main question I had here was if, having checked the turn, I need to call the river in case I induced a bluff.

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By checking the turn you usually resign yourself to folding the river unimproved, if bet in to (though obviously this is read dependent). Otherwise you might as well just bet the turn and take the free river card unimproved (because you'll often get it, and if you don't, and your opponent all of a sudden comes out betting the river, it's almost always safe to fold).

It's basically a trade-off. If you bet the turn that's a bet you'll have to use with a hand that you're not particularly confindent with. But you're usually going to be able to show the hand down for free on the river. On the other hand, if you check the turn, you save that turn bet with your questionable hand, and you might even get a free river anyway (in which you're often going to win with only your high card), but you'll sometimes be forced to second guess yourself if you're bet in to on the river (because your opponent's much more likely to be bluffing than if you'd bet the turn).

And yes, most of these comments assume you have position. Out of position it's a bit trickier.

[@bsolute_luck]

Hand #2

i like checking the turn too not because i think we're behind, but pretty likely we have the best hand, villain will most likely bet whatever he has in his hand.

w/o reads obviously villain probably thinks you're continuing to bet on the flop with UI overcards. by checking the turn on what i believe to be a blank, we make him think we do.

he'll bet his pair or check his flush draw. since he didn't put more aggression on the flop, i'm doubting a T. a 7 is somewhat likely, but seeing the 2nd makes it doubtful.

so the river: we have a showdown hand, so i really hate the bet/fold line almost whatever falls. but if a face card falls, i'll probably bet into him as he'll most likely check behind his pocket pair.

if the 3rd [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] falls, i'll probably bet/fold again as he'll most likely check behind his pocket pair or raise his flush.

anything else, i'm check/calling probably unless it's something like a 2 or 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], i might consider check/raising [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[benkath1]

I don't see anything boring at all.

Hand one I hate. I just hate it when the board double pairs. I hate it. Looking back at the replies and villains flop action, I think a flush draw is probable. Would UTG limp with a 7 in his hand? hmmmm. I think calling a turn raise and showing down is what I'd do. Be nice if we knew him a little better.