Another very close one. Value bet it?

[astroglide]

nobody seems to have mentioned a gutshot here. people will raise the flop with something like 97 here a lot, and that's another hand that might bluff if you check. i see way more hands bluffing than i do worse ones calling. not very close in my book.

[Turning Stone Pro]

Close call, Barron, but I think he would bet an 8 if you check, and I think you would have to call in this situation, and I dont think he is going to raise you with an 8 if you lead, and I think he will call with a ton of hands you can beat, so . . .

bet it!

TSP

[elmo]

Have we decided that we won't call a raise if we lead? If we are willing to, it is very relevant whether or not our opponent is capable of a bluff-raise. This play should be hugely profitable if your opponent will raise 2 flush cards.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you sum it up nicely. People rarely bluff-raise the river, however. You don't say at what limit this is - 30/60?

Normally I would check-call the river here against a typical oppo, but since he's normally aggressive I think you are probably just ahead with a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

if you haven't noticed (which i hope you haven't b/c it shouldn't matter to some degree) i have been recently leaving the limit out of my hand posts. it shouldn't really matter but this is 100/200.

-Barron

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
nobody seems to have mentioned a gutshot here. people will raise the flop with something like 97 here a lot, and that's another hand that might bluff if you check. i see way more hands bluffing than i do worse ones calling. not very close in my book.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think a flush draw with an ace, one that got paired(2 small suited cards w/ a 3 or K3 etc..), or a flush draw with the 3 AND an ace are the 3 most likely hands calling here...why do you think the gutter is more likely than those?

-Barron

[astroglide]

[ QUOTE ]
why do you think the gutter is more likely than those?

[/ QUOTE ]

i didn't say a gutshot was more likely, i said nobody had mentioned one. there's a wide range of hands that could be played the way he did.

[ QUOTE ]
i think a flush draw with an ace, one that got paired(2 small suited cards w/ a 3 or K3 etc..), or a flush draw with the 3 AND an ace are the 3 most likely hands calling here

[/ QUOTE ]

are you talking about calling the turn or calling the river? you've got an ace, so that's not so likely. most people will reraise decent aces/suited aces preflop, so it's even less likely. he'll call the turn with way lesser draws if that's what you're talking about, and as far as the river i think it's too bullet-pointed of a range to make it a value bet.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
as far as the river i think it's too bullet-pointed of a range to make it a value bet.


[/ QUOTE ]

this is an excelent point...but he also may be good enough to check and get to see my hand if i check.

is there any value gained from him knowing i can play 2nd pair like this? what i mean is, could there be enough "other value" meta game etc. value from the bet that could offset the difference if the value is almost "barely there"

RESULS:

i bet he called and i dont remember what he had but it was probably a worse kicked 5.

this one was just a close one that after i bet i wished id checked b/c i realized i just didn't want to be called or raised.

-Barron

[Nigel]

Barron,

If you bet and he calls, he sees your hand anyway. If you bet and he folds his T7, 96, or who knows what garbage he was holding (that he would have compelled to bet if you checked to him), you really lose out on some nice info on him, plus that BB.

I really think the metgame implications favor you checking here given the fact that you have no reads on this player as of yet.

Nigel

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
Barron,

If you bet and he calls, he sees your hand anyway. If you bet and he folds his T7, 96, or who knows what garbage he was holding (that he would have compelled to bet if you checked to him), you really lose out on some nice info on him, plus that BB.

I really think the metgame implications favor you checking here given the fact that you have no reads on this player as of yet.

Nigel

[/ QUOTE ]

i dont get to see unshown hole cards.

-Barron

[stoxtrader]

I like that you included the description for the button.

I check-call here.