$10+$1 Rebuy AK hand - Page 2

durron597 · #11 07-20-2005, 09:33 AM

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It definitely feels like he's trying to push us off the hand.

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So your hand range is "he's bluffing"?

Lloyd · #12 07-20-2005, 09:40 AM

Like I said, there's some chance he'd doing this with a boat. I agree with you completely in that he's either making a move or a great player pretending to make a move with a big hand. I give more possibility to the former therefore I would call but I'm not 100% confident in that decision. I'm just confident enough to make it knowing it's correct long-term.

durron597 · #13 07-20-2005, 10:20 AM

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Like I said, there's some chance he'd doing this with a boat. I agree with you completely in that he's either making a move or a great player pretending to make a move with a big hand. I give more possibility to the former therefore I would call but I'm not 100% confident in that decision. I'm just confident enough to make it knowing it's correct long-term.

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Ok, so then his range is:

A) A boat
B) A total bluff (i.e. nothing at all hand like T9s, or maybe a hand like 88)

But that's all we beat. Pure bluffs. So should we still call against an unknown? I rarely think about hands this deeply but I thought about this one and this is the same range I came up with.

borlaK · #14 07-20-2005, 10:23 AM

I'd have to put new guy on KJ

he's new to the table.. whenever I get moved I make it a point to play it cool. you know nothing about the other players.

with that in mind I wouldn't trust anything he did. does he slowplay? who knows. does he push people around? who knows.. he himself called a pf raise not knowing the table, so I'd put him on decent cards.

then it looks like he hit his cards hard.. why risk your tournament life with so little information

durron597 · #15 07-20-2005, 10:24 AM

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then it looks like he hit his cards hard.. why risk your tournament life with so little information

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Because you have trips top kicker? Level 1 thinking I know, but Hero's hand is very strong which is why this is so tough.

Lloyd · #16 07-20-2005, 10:25 AM

There are only 9 possible hand combinations of reasonable full houses (meaning I'm leaving off KJ, K5, and K2). There are more than 9 possible hands that we can beat (bluffs). So I think there is a greater than 50% liklihood that we are ahead. Therefore, I call.

Lloyd · #17 07-20-2005, 10:30 AM

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I'd have to put new guy on KJ

he's new to the table.. whenever I get moved I make it a point to play it cool. you know nothing about the other players.

with that in mind I wouldn't trust anything he did. does he slowplay? who knows. does he push people around? who knows.. he himself called a pf raise not knowing the table, so I'd put him on decent cards.

then it looks like he hit his cards hard.. why risk your tournament life with so little information

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Even adding KJ to the other possible full house combinations, there are still only 12 hands we're behind and more than 12 we're ahead of.

And this is not Level 1 thinking, it's beyond. If I were him, I would not put us on a K because we checked the flop. Nor would I put us on a full house. Pushing the river will only be called by K with a good kicker, or a full house. It would be reasonable for him to put us on a hand like TT or 99 in which case pushing the flop on a bluff should win the pot.

borlaK · #18 07-20-2005, 10:43 AM

the fact he is new to the table changes everything, it comes down to winning based simply on good cards, you know nothing about eachother

either he's an idiot, or he really has the cards.. up to you to take that risk

durron597 · #19 07-20-2005, 10:45 AM

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the fact he is new to the table changes everything, it comes down to winning based simply on good cards, you know nothing about eachother

either he's an idiot, or he really has the cards.. up to you to take that risk

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Yes but also realize he is just afraid of Hero as we are afraid of him, and could be trying to take advantage.

borlaK · #20 07-20-2005, 10:58 AM

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Yes but also realize he is just afraid of Hero as we are afraid of him, and could be trying to take advantage.

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if Hero is afraid of me, then send out a small bet and take the pot

if Villain is really trying to take advantage, then he must have the cards. what makes more sense:
Hero knows nothing about me, so he just may take my all-in bet and double me up!
or
Hero keeps checking every time. since I know nothing about him, I can only assume he has nothing. I guess I'll go all in and bluff a measly 3k pot with bad cards.