don't be dumb like me

[mr pink]

yeah he had KK.

[mr pink]

i forgot to mention that just because bayesian analysis gives us the 2 to 1 chance that he has AA and not KK, i don't think you have the 67% you need in order to raise the river here because of the fact that he bet.

[molawn2mo]

[ QUOTE ]
i forgot to mention that just because bayesian analysis gives us the 2 to 1 chance that he has AA and not KK, i don't think you have the 67% you need in order to raise the river here because of the fact that he bet.

[/ QUOTE ]


bingo! villain's river bet screams... i gotcha!

of course you should have just called and i'll bet that you "knew" it, too. a non-maniac villain, w/AA, would CC or CF vs that river K. your river raise is a form of tilt; a denial of your gut and a denial of the obvious - falling back on untempered aggression to counteract a riverfuck.

jeff... you understand where i am coming from, right?

[sthief09]

2:1 he has AA vs KK all else equal. as far as tendencies, I'd think he'll play AA like this more often than KK because he overplayed the turn so badly. at least AA can think you have KK. what can KK hope you have? even so, I'd say you're about 50/50 here and while AA might sometimes 3-bet, KK has the nuts and will always 3-bet.

and this is a weird statement: raise the flop here and hope mp1 3-bets to squeeze out mp2?

I don't usually like being told I'm beat

[Roland19]

Mr. Pink, don't you ever put him on KK here (OK, well maybe sometimes). Cap the river merrily with your 2nd nuts. I think you're being results oriented.

[clownshoes]

capping this river is excessive minus a read

[mr pink]

cliff,

i hear ya.

this however is the best part of your post

[ QUOTE ]
falling back on untempered aggression to counteract a riverfuck.



[/ QUOTE ]

so true.

[mr pink]

[ QUOTE ]
2:1 he has AA vs KK all else equal. as far as tendencies, I'd think he'll play AA like this more often than KK because he overplayed the turn so badly. at least AA can think you have KK. what can KK hope you have? even so, I'd say you're about 50/50 here and while AA might sometimes 3-bet, KK has the nuts and will always 3-bet.


[/ QUOTE ]

so if you're 50/50, what's that mean? call i guess?

[ QUOTE ]
and this is a weird statement: raise the flop here and hope mp1 3-bets to squeeze out mp2?


[/ QUOTE ]

i guess you're saying just call him down here?

[molawn2mo]

[ QUOTE ]
2:1 he has AA vs KK all else equal.

[/ QUOTE ]

on the river all else is not equal because villain bet out. the entire hand has clearly reflected hero and villain, each, holding big PP. villain, holding AA, would be puking on the river K - he is already dodging the Turned Q as a threat. So... the fact that he bet out the river essentially denies holding AA (unless villain is comfortable folding to a river raise and takes the line that since he is going to call one bet... it is better to lead. but that line requires you to fold to a raise)doubtful).

[sthief09]

I didn't say all else is equal. I said it's 2:1 if all else is equal