QQ - check turn?

[Altaslim]

I bet 100 out of 100.

[Surfbullet]

Heya Nietzsche, I think you may be overestimating the # of bluffs you'll get and underestimating the number of calls.

[ QUOTE ]
The reason I think checking may have a higher expectation (though I'm not sure) is a combination of the following factors:

1) I may induce a bluff on the river from a hand that would have folded the turn. I gain one bet.


[/ QUOTE ]
This is possible, but very unlikely unless villain is overaggro. This is a scary board and you raised preflop - even the most unobservant players would think twice before bluffing this river.

[ QUOTE ]

2) I may get called on the river by a relatively weak hand because of my weakness on the turn. A hand that might have folded the turn. I gain one bet.


[/ QUOTE ]
Often when this happens you will have realistically missed out on an extra bet because he would have called the turn. weak 1 pair hands are more likely to call a turn bet to try and improve.

[ QUOTE ]

3) I get a free card in case I'm behind. A king will call and maybe 3-bet the river. The times I'm behind I lose less. If I bet I think I have to call a turn raise and a river bet in case he he has a two pair or a lower set. So in the cases that he has a K I risk losing 3 bets if I bet the turn and only when if I check.


[/ QUOTE ]
He does not often have a King. There is no reason to forgo such a significant edge on the turn - we will be called by so many lesser hands. Sometimes we get c/r'd by a K, but we fill up on the river and get 2-4 more bets in. Sometimes we call and lose. Sometimes we call and win. Be careful about failing to miss value bets because you "might get raised when behind."

[ QUOTE ]

Against:
1) I give him a chance to split the pot if he catches a four outer. The chances of that happening is 9%. Had the pot been bigger it would have made sense to protect it but here it seems better to me to extract a little more from bluffs and worse hands and lose less when behind.


[/ QUOTE ]
You're right, the pot size is small so we're not too concerned about a chop.

[ QUOTE ]

2) An ace or even a T may call both a turn and a river bet giving me two bets as opposed to one bet when I check the turn.


[/ QUOTE ]

Here's the big thing. An ace will call 2 streets. A Q will call 2 streets. T's may call 2streets. Any 2 pair will call 2 streets (and maybe raise!). TT and JJ will call 2 streets (and raise!) Sometimes you'll bet and 77 will fold, but that happens. A flop call here is usually a piece of the board or a gutshot. A K gutshot just hit his str8, but a J just paired and will likely call. In addition, a 9 will often call with an "OESD." This is a clear bet for value.

The line you took is a good one, but is much more appropriate for a more marginal hand, where a turn bet is close to EV neutral, but we'll often snap off a river bluff. This is especially true against aggressive opponents - don't bother using it against the 50/3/.3 types at the 5/10.

Surf