KQo 2-4, Flop bluff gone wrong.

[aggie]

[ QUOTE ]
I think cr is the best line here, it gets u something from JJ.
If you call here, he isnt gonna bet/call on river unimproved, just calling here is analogus to giving him a free card, even if its just 2, when the reward is prolly gonna be the same, why take more risk for it. I think i cr here and take it down.

[/ QUOTE ]

This seems to make the bold assumption that hero is ahead all of the time here

[turnipmonster]

I would check the turn for sure, a raise makes you throw up since you have to fold a probably live draw and it's a good scare card for an aggro player to bet.

on the river I think you have a lot of options but they are dependent on his turn action.

--turnipmonster

[thabadguy]

Even if he isnt, i dont think something like AA, AK is calling here.

[gomberg]

I'm not sure I like the flop CR here unless you think it'll work a very large percentage of the time. The pot is ~$25 on the flop. If you want to bluff, I like leading out here instead of CRing, but sometimes you can CR bluff once in a while if you ever CR the flop w/ other hands.

If you lead out, you risk about $20 to win $25.

With a CR, you risk $50 to win $40 - obviously your risk / reward ratio is much higher with the CR, and you're giving him good odds to call w/ a reasonable hand and in position.

A lot of these decisions will be bent on your history with this player and your view of him, his view of you, and so on to whatever level he's thinking at. You also may have decided to raise because of his weak-a*s bet, which you may judge as him having a weaker hand than normal here.

As far as how the hand went down, if I think he's capable of being tricky here, I either bet 2/3 pot or check call a decent bet. If he's going to be straightforward, I probably bet small (1/2 pot) knowing he won't raise me w/ a worse hand.

If the river bricks, I probably check call to induce some bluffing equity. If it doesn't brick, I'd bet 1/3 pot again if he's not tricky / too aggressive or bet more if you can get away with it.

I don't think I'd want to play a huge pot here w/out a good read on opponent.

[fimbulwinter]

turn check, river blocker sounds about right.

fim